Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

wilson
 
Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus a pair of MLB playoff games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing a pair of Thursday Night Football games tonight...
 
 
7:30 p.m. ET: Houston at Tulane
 
This American Athletic showdown features the top team in the conference against the last place team in the conference. Houston (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) is riding a four-game winning streak, most recently beating Tulsa 45-10 last week, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Tulane (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by East Carolina 52-29, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. 
 
This line opened with Houston listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both in agreement and neither are outsmarting themselves. They're getting down hard on the better team, steaming Houston up from -4.5 to -6.5. Both teams are relatively even on offense, with Houston scoring 36.6 PPG and Tulane 35 PPG. The big difference maker comes defensively. Houston is giving up just 15 PPG while Tulane is giving up 40.2 PPG. 
 
The total opened at 63 and some under money has dropped it to 60 or even 59.5 at some shops. Thursday Night Football unders in college are roughly 56-percent over the past decade. The forecast calls for high 70s with low 5 MPH winds. Houston is 3-2 to the over and Tulane is 4-1 to the over. 
 
 
8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
 
These division rivals are coming off polar opposite performances in Week 4. The Rams (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) suffered their first defeat of the season, getting waxed by the Cardinals 37-20 and losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Seahawks (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 28-21 win over the 49ers, cashing as 2.5-point road dogs. 
 
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Rams, expecting a bounce back win and easy cover at such a short number. Early respected money also laid the chalk. This lopsided action has steamed the Rams up from -1 to -2.5. Savvy contrarian bettors are holding out for the Seahawks at the key number of  3. Seattle has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 7-5 ATS this season and 35-24 ATS (59 percent) over the past two seasons. Russell Wilson is 24-10 ATS (71 percent) when getting points as a dog. Divisional dogs are 63-49 ATS (56 percent) since 2020. CenturyLink Field, home of the 12th man, is considered to be one of the best home field advantages in football. The Seahawks are in a prime teaser spot at their current number. By taking Seattle up from 2.5 to 8.5 you pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 
 
The total opened at a high 53.5 and has been bet up to 54.5, signaling some over money. Primetime overs are 8-4 this season, although they've lost their last three. Buying low on a high total under could be worth a look. Unders are 37-27 (58 percent) this season and divisional unders are 10-6 (62 percent). The Rams are 4-0 to the over. The Seahawks are 3-1 to the under. The forecast calls for mid 50s and mild 5 MPH winds. 
 
 
Prop Bets to Consider
 
Both of these teams are at the bottom of the league in terms of passing yards allowed. The Rams are 25th, allowing 273.2 yards. The Seahawks are 28th, allowing 292.5 yards. With that in mind, targeting quarterback overs and wide receiver overs make sense. Also, the Seahawks rank 31st and dead last in rushing yards allowed, giving a league high 152 per game. 
 
Stafford over 298.5 passing yards
Wilson over 266.5 passing yards
 
Metcalf over 73.5 receiving yards
Lockett over 67.5 receiving yards
Kupp over 84.5 receiving yards (leads team with 46 targets)
Woods over 60.5 receiving yards
Jefferson over 44.5 receiving yards
 
Darrell Henderson over 64.5 rushing yards
 
 
 
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