Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

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Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus 6 NBA games, 11 NHL games and 40 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for Thursday Night Football in both pro and college...


7:30 p.m. ET: Louisville at Duke

This ACC clash features two teams who have struggled as of late. Louisville (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) started the season 3-1 but has gone just 2-4 since. However, Louisville did just crush Syracuse 41-3 their last time out, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Similarly, Duke (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) started the season 3-1 but has since lost six straight. Duke just fell to Virginia Tech 48-17, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Louisville listed as a 19-point road favorite. Both pros and Joes are laying the points with the Cardinals, steaming Louisville up from -19 to -20. Louisville is averaging 30 PPG on offense and giving up 25 PPG on defense. Meanwhile, Duke is only scoring 24.2 PPG and allowing 36.8 PPG. Louisville has value as favorite with a high total (60). The more expected points scored, the easier it is for a bigger favorite to cover a number. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 58 to 60.5. 


8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

These non-conference opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Patriots (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) are playing their best football of the season and have won four straight, most recently crushing the Browns 45-7 and easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Falcons (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and just got demolished by the Cowboys 43-3, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with the Patriots listed as a 6-point road favorite. Early money laid the points with New England and the public has piled on, driving New England up from -6 to -7. At this point, all the value on the Patriots is gone and now if you're laying the points you're with the public getting the worst of the number, which is oftentimes a dangerous proposition. A New England teaser play may be more palatable (-7 to -1). Contrarian minded bettors are looking to the Falcons as a "hazmat play" tonight. In fact, we've seen some signs of sharp buyback on the Falcons, with many shops juicing up Atlanta  7 to -115, signaling a possible fall back to 6.5. The Falcons have value as a contrarian inflated home dog in a heavily bet game. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 12-5 ATS this season and roughly 56% ATS over the past decade. Primetime dogs are 21-9 ATS (70%) this season. 

The total has ticked up slightly from 46 to 47. Unders are 84-65 (56%) on the season and non-conference unders are 31-17 (65%). 

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