Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

jets

 

Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus 5 NBA games and 9 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for Thursday Night Football in both pro and college...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia State at Louisiana

This Sun Belt clash features two red-hot conference foes riding winning streaks. Georgia State (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) has won three straight and just took down Georgia Southern 21-14, covering as 6-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Louisiana (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) has won seven straight and just crushed Texas State 45-0, easily covering as 21-point home favorites. This line opened with Louisiana listed as an 11-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Louisiana, steaming the home team up from -11 to -12. Louisiana is beating their opponents by an average score of 32-19 this season. Georgia State is losing by an average score of 24-30. We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 53 to 54. Georgia State is 5-3 to the over but Louisiana is 7-1 to the under. The forecast calls for mid 50s, mostly cloudy with 8 MPH winds. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these non-division AFC foes are looking to claw their way back to .500. The Jets (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) just shocked the Bengals 34-31, winning outright as 11.5-point home dogs. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for New York. Meanwhile, the Colts (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) just fell to the Titans 35-31 in overtime, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The loss snapped a two-game winning streak for Indianapolis. 

This line opened with the Colts listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. We've seen a line freeze pretty much all week, although some books are juicing up the Jets  10.5 to -115, signaling some sneaky liability on the road dog. The next move will be critical. If we start to see this line fall to 10 on game-day, that will indicate further Jets support. If the line jumps closer to -11, that will signal late Colts money. 

The Jets match several profitable betting systems. Road dogs are 43-28 ATS (61%) this season and conference dogs are 52-32 ATS (62%). Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 27-17 ATS (61%). Primetime dogs have gone a sparkling 17-7 ATS (71%). The Jets also have buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (5-3). 

Respected money also appears to be leaning under as we've seen the total fall from 46.5 to 45.5. Unders are 67-54 (55%) this season. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (57.4%). 

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