Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

cowboys

 

Today bettors have Thursday Night Football to get down on, plus 5 NBA games, 10 NHL games,  and 30 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's Week 13 opener in the NFL...

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

This Thursday Night matchup features two NFC teams looking to snap losing streaks. The Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and three of their last four, most recently falling to the Raiders 36-33 on Thanksgiving as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) have lost four straight and just got crushed by the Bills 31-6 on Thanksgiving, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. 
 
This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Dallas, with 81% of bets at DraftKings laying the points with the Cowboys. However, we've seen this line fall from 5.5 to 4.5. The major reason for the line move is a COVID situation with the Cowboys, who will be without two players and six coaches, including head coach Mike McCarthy. The line even reached 4 at some shops, but then ticked back up to 4.5 or 5 when Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb were upgraded to probable. Taysom Hill will get the start for New Orleans. 
 
The Saints have value as a contrarian dog only getting 19% of bets in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 23-13 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20 points are 14-9 ATS (61%). Conference dogs  7 or less are 57-32 ATS (64%). Sean Payton is 4-2 ATS as a dog this season and 45-27 ATS (62%) in his career.
 
The Saints are a teaser candidate as well ( 4.5 to  10.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. 

 

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 47.5. Primetime unders are 19-16 (54%) on the season, but are a blistering 17-8 (68%) over the past two months. 

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