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Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

herbert

Today bettors have Thursday Night Football to get down on, plus 4 NBA games, 10 NHL games and a full College Basketball card. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6 p.m. ET. 

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's Week 15 opener in the NFL...

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

This Thursday Night showdown features the top two AFC West rivals facing off in primetime. The Chiefs (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) have won six straight games and just crushed the Raiders 48-9, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. Similarly, the Chargers (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently beating the Giants 37-21 last week and covering a 9-point home favorites. The Chiefs are currently -225 favorites to win the AFC West at BetMGM. The Chargers have the 2nd-best odds at  200.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is hammering the red-hot Chiefs, especially laying such a short number. This lopsided betting pushed Kansas City up from -3 to -4 early in the week. But since that time we've seen a lot of buyback on the Chargers at 4 and 3.5, dropping the line back to 3 across the board. Esentially, we are looking at a Los Angeles line freeze and some reverse line movement in their favor. Conference dogs  7 or less are 66-34 ATS (66%) this season. Divisional dogs are 33-27 ATS (55%) and primetime dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS this season as a dog and 7-4 ATS (64%) in his career.

Those looking to back the Chargers would be wise to wait out for the hook to back up ( 3.5) as game-day betting typically favors Mahomes and company. The Chargers upset the Chiefs 30-24 in Week 3 as 7-point road dogs. The Chiefs will miss several defensive players with Chris Jones and Willie Gay on the COVID list and L'Jarius Sneed sitting out for personal reasons.

We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 50 to 52. There may be some value buying low on the inflated under 52. Both teams are 7-6 to the under. When the total is 50 or higher, the under is 31-26 (54%) this season. Primetime unders are 22-19 (54%) on the season but 20-11 (65%) since October. Late season divisional unders are 14-9 (61%) since Week 10.

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