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Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

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Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus 10 NHL games, 3 NBA games and one MLB playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for tonight's Thursday Night Football showdown...
 
 
8:20 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns
 

This Thursday Night clash features a pair of .500 teams looking to snap losing skids. The Broncos (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but have since gone 0-3, most recently falling to the Raiders 34-24 last week, losing outright as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Browns (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 3-1 but have since lost two straight, including a 37-14 loss to the Cardinals last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. The Broncos are  16 in point differential. The Browns are + 5.

 
This line opened with Cleveland listed as roughly a 6-point home favorite. As soon as the line was released, respected money pounced on the Broncos getting points, steaming Denver down to  3.5. Then, once it was announced Baker Mayfield would miss this game due to injury and Case Keenum would start in his place, we saw a second rush of Broncos money hit the market, dropping Denver down to  2. 
 
Denver matches several profitable betting systems. Road dogs off a loss are 18-11 ATS (62%) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (67%). Conference dogs are 39-26 ATS (60%). Short road dogs  3 or less are 12-4 ATS (75%). Teddy Bridgewater is 24-7 ATS (77%) in his career as a dog, including an incredible 19-2 ATS (91%) as a road dog. 
 
Respected money has also come down on this under, dropping the total from 44 to 41. Unders are 51-42 (55%) this season. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 17-9 (65%). Weather could also play a factor here. The forecast calls for low 60s with 15-20 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. When the wind blows at least 10 MPH the under is 17-10 (63%) this season and roughly 55% the past decade. 
 
 
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