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Thursday Night Football Sharp Report

Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu to choose from, including Thursday Night Football in both pro and college, plus a decisive Game 5 in the MLB playoffs. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for a pair of Thursday Night Football games tonight...
7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia Southern at South Alabama
This Sun Belt grudge match features two teams looking to snap losing skids. Georgia Southern (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) won its opener but has gone 1-4 since, including a 27-24 loss to Troy last week, although Georgia Southern did cover as 5.5-point road dogs. Similarly, South Alabama (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) started the season 3-0 but has since dropped two straight, falling to Texas State 33-31, losing outright as 4-point road dogs. 
This line opened with South Alabama listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the home favorite, especially due to their superior won-loss record. However, this line has actually ticked down from 3.5 to 3, signaling some sharp wiseguy action backing Georgia Southern plus the points. Short road dogs + 4 or less are 27-18 ATS (60 percent) this season and roughly 55 percent ATS over the past decade. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 49.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for high 80s at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. This would match a "hot over" system. When the temperature is 85 or more, the over is roughly 54 percent the past decade. 
8:20 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
This Thursday Night showdown features a pair of NFC non-division foes coming off wins. The Buccaneers (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two straight and just dismissed the Dolphins 45-17, easily covering as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just beat the Panthers 21-18, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. The win snapped a three-game losing skid for Philadelphia. Both of these teams are even defensively, with the Bucs allowing 24.4 PPG and the Eagles allowing 24.8 PPG. The difference comes on offense where Tampa Bay is averaging 33.4 PPG as opposed to Philadelphia averaging 23 PPG. 
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Bucs and laying the chalk, expecting an easy win and cover. This lopsided support pushed the line up to the key number of 7. Over the past day or so, we've seen sharp buyback on the Eagles 7, with many books juicing up the Eagles side and hinting at a fall back down to 6.5. Dogs are 45-35 ATS (56 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 9-6 ATS (60 percent). The Eagles also have value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Tom Brady is 0-10 ATS in his last ten primetime games. Tampa has ruled out tight end Rob Gronkowksi along with a pair of defensive starters in Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. 
Prop Bet to Consider: Jalen Hurts over 279.5 passing yards (DraftKings)
*Tampa Bay has the worst pass defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in opponent passing yards per game (314.4). The Bucs will be missing several starters. Hurts will need to throw the ball to keep pace with Brady and the Bucs. This could also lead to lots of garbage yards in the second half. 
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