Thursday Night Football Sharp Report


Today bettors have Thursday Night Football to get down on, plus 11 NBA games and a handful of College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's Week 16 opener in the NFL...


8:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans
These non-conference playoff teams are trending in opposite directions. The 49ers (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two straight and are 6-2 over their last eight games. San Francisco just beat Atlanta 31-13, easily covering as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) started 8-2 but are just 1-3 over their last four games. Tennessee just fell to Pittsburgh 19-13, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. 
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the red-hot 49ers, which drove this line up to 49ers -3.5 or even -4 at some shops. That's when some wiseguy buyback jumped on the Titans at an inflated price, dropping the line back down to 3. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze and some late reverse line movement on Tennessee, who also has value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 26-19 ATS (58%) this season. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is 5-2 ATS this season as a dog and 17-11 ATS (61%) in his career. On the flip side, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is just 13-23 ATS (36%) as a favorite. Those interested in backing the Titans should wait to see if the line ticks back up to  3.5 on gameday, which it might as the public piles on San Francisco.
49ers starting running back Elijah Mitchell will miss this game with an injury. The Titans will be missing offensive linemen Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold due to injury. Tennessee could activate wide receiver AJ Brown from injured reserve. 
The total has dipped slightly from 44.5 to 44, signaling some under support. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 46-38 (55%) this season. Non-conference unders are 42-28 (60%). Primetime unders are 26-21 (55%), including 24-13 (65%) since November 1st. Both teams are 2-0 to the under their last two games. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 31-25 (55%) to the under historically. Those looking to ride the dog and under edge in primetime might consider teasing the Titans up from  3 to  9 and then tease up the under from 44.5 to 50.5. 
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