Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu to choose from, including Thursday Night Football for both College and NFL plus 12 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's two big football games...
7:30 p.m. ET: Marshall at Appalachian State
This non-conference showdown features a pair of 2-1 teams going at it. Marshall (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) started the season 2-0 and lost their first game last week to East Carolina, losing 42-38 as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Appalachian State (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a tough 25-23 loss to Miami in Week 2 with the 44-10 win over Elon, although they failed to cover as 35.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Appalachian State listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with App State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen App State fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals some respected money hitting Marshall plus the hook. Marshall also has value as an unpopular road dog in a heavily bet game. We've also seen some over money show up, steaming the total from 57 to 59.5. Marshall is 3-0 to the over this season, averaging 43.7 PPG on offense.
8:20 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans
The Panthers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have been impressive through two games, taking care of the Jets 19-14 as 3.5-point home favorites in the opener and then upsetting the Saints 26-7 last week as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) have also covered both of their games thus far, upsetting the Jags 37-21 as 3.5-point home dogs and then losing to the Browns 31-21 last week but covering as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 7-point road favorite. A combination of early sharp money and steady public support has pushed Carolina up from -7 to -8. Before Tyrod Taylor got hurt, the early line was Carolina -3.5. With rookie Davis Mills starting, the opener was adjusted to -7.
If you missed the early number on the Panthers, the Texans could be worth a look as a buy-low value play. The public is all over Carolina, which gives Houston contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game, plus an inflated line at 8. Dogs are 21-11 ATS (66 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 4-2 ATS this season and 32-21 (60 percent) since 2020. Alex Kemp, the lead official, has historically favored home teams (27-20, 58 percent ATS).
If you like the Panthers, consider them in a teaser. You could tease Carolina down from -8 to -2, which goes through a pair of key numbers in 7 and 3. Going through multiple key numbers is the wiseguy approach to teasers.
The total opened at 44 and despite the public taking the over, the line has fallen to 43. This reverse line movement signals some smart under money. One interesting trend we've seen this season: primetime overs are a perfect 6-0.