Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Titans at Packers

November 16, 2022 11:51 PM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3, 41)

The Titans (6-3) are 6-1 over their last seven games and just took down the Broncos 17-10, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (4-6) just snapped a five-game losing skid with a 31-28 win over the Cowboys in overtime, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. 

This line opened with Green Bay listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Packers, steaming Green Bay up from -1 to -3. The Packers -3 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to -3.5. Green Bay is only receiving 48% of bets but 63% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor.

Green Bay is a mini "fade the trendy dog" play as a slight majority of bets are backing Tennessee yet the line has moved further toward the Packers. Green Bay also has fishy contrarian value due to the fact that they have a losing record but are favored over a team with a winning record. Green Bay also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (4-6) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (7-2). Thursday Night Football home favorites are 80-64 ATS (56%) since 2006. 

If the line reaches Packers -3.5, expect to see some buyback on the Titans plus the hook. Primetime dogs are 19-11 ATS (63%) this season. Road dogs are 50-37 ATS (57%).  Mike Vrabel is 21-12 ATS (64%) as a dog as head coach of the Titans. 

We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 41. Primetime unders are 20-10 (67%) this season. The forecast calls for cold temperatures in the mid 20s with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 60% to the under historically. The Titans are 7-2 to the under this season and the Packers are 6-4 to the under.

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