Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Ravens at Bucs

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 45.5)

These non-conference foes are trending in opposite directions. The Ravens (4-3) have won three of their last five games and just beat the Browns 23-20 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the ice-cold Bucs (3-4) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Panthers 21-3, losing outright as 13-point road favorites. 

The early lookahead line on this game had the Bucs listed as a 3-point home favorite. However, with Tampa Bay playing so poorly as of late, this line quickly adjusted to Ravens -2 early in the week. The public has given up on Tom Brady and they're rushing to the window to back Lamar Jackson. However, despite 79% of bets backing Baltimore, we've seen this line steam toward the Bucs over the past 24-48 hours, flipping the Bucs back to a 1-point home favorite. Some books are even up to Bucs -1.5. This late movement is key, as it illustrates pros fading the trendy dog Ravens and instead buying low on the Bucs at home at a short price.

Tampa Bay has value as a contrarian home favorite only receiving 21% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Thursday Night Football home favorites are 3-2 ATS this season 80-63 ATS (56%) since 2006. 

We've also seen some respected money hit the over, steaming the total up from 44.5 to 45.5. Currently 55% of bets and 62% of money is taking the over. This line movement is notable because both teams have been huge under teams this season, with the Ravens 5-2 to the under and the Bucs 6-1 to the under. Also, we've Thursday Night Football unders go 5-2 to this season and 17-8 (68%) since 2019. The forecast calls for mid 70s with mild 5 MPH winds. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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