Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Eagles at Texans

November 2, 2022 10:40 PM
USATSI_19330416

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5, 45.5) at Houston Texans

The Eagles (7-0) are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Philadelphia is coming off a 35-13 win over the Steelers, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans (1-5-1) own the second worst record in the league. Only the Lions (1-6) are worse. Houston has lost two straight and just fell to the Titans 17-10, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. 

This line opened with the Eagles listed as a 13-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for Philadelphia and 73% of bets are laying the points with the Eagles. This lopsided action pushed the Eagles up to the key number of -14. That's when some sharp buyback took Houston +14, causing the line to fall back down to 13.5 where it rests now. 

The Texans match several profitable betting systems. Dogs are 70-52 ATS (57%) this season. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week are 28-18 ATS (61%). Big dogs +7 or more are 17-10 ATS (63%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 51-35 ATS (59%). Primetime dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%). Houston is only receiving 27% of bets but 50% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy in their favor. 

Smart money has also hit the over, steaming the total up from 43.5 to 45.5. The over is receiving 63% of bets but 91% of money, a notable sharp over discrepancy. Despite the over move, primetime unders have been a smart bet this season, going 16-9 (66%). 

back to news

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
Close