Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Commanders at Bears

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For an in-depth breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)

Both of these NFC opponents are below .500 and looking to snap losing streaks. After winning their season opener, the Commanders have now lost four straight games. Washington is coming off a 21-17 loss to the Titans, failing to cover as a home pick'em. Meanwhile, the Bears have dropped two straight games and just fell to the Vikings 29-22 but covered as 8.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened at a pick'em and remained frozen at a pick'em virtually all week. With anywhere between 1.5 to 3 points rewarded for home-field advantage, this signals that the Commanders would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. The public is all over Chicago in this one, with 65% of bets backing the Bears at the pick'em price. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn't budged an inch. Reading between the lines, there appears to be some line freeze liability on the Commanders. The next move is critical. If we see this line move to Commanders -1 on gameday, that will signal further liability on Washington. If we see late movement break toward the Bears -1, that will indicate late money backing the home team. Regardless of the late move, Washington is offering contrarian value as an unpopular road pick'em play in a heavily bet primetime game.

While the spread hasn't budged, the total is a different story. The total opened at 40 and has fallen to 38 across the market. Some shops are even hinting at a fall to 37.5. This movement is notable because 55% of bets are taking the over, yet we've seen the line fall. This is evidence of smart money hitting the under. Unders are 47-33 (59%) this season. Thursday Night Football unders are 4-1 this season and 16-7 (70%) since the start of last season. Primetime unders are 11-5 (69%) overall this season. Unders that fall at least a half point are 28-17 (62%). The forecast calls for high 40s and 10-15 MPH winds at Soldier Field. When the wind blows 10 MPH the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Adrian Hill, the lead referee, is 62% to the under historically. Both teams are 3-2 to the under on the season. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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A Numbers Game: An easy place to get a leg up for new bettors is just shopping futures prices. It is easy to find major differences often. i.e. Virginia 30-1 vs 16-1. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Bet as early as possible when bowl lines come out. Lines can move more than a TD in 2-3 weeks before a game. View more tips.
 
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Gill Alexander: Seahawks -7 vs Browns.  View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Jets +3 at Vikings.  View more picks.

 

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