Thursday Night Football Sharp Report: Colts at Broncos

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves that bettors need to know about each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Thursday's betting slate, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Big Bets at 2:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Thursday Night Football showdown...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

Both of these AFC opponents are looking to bounce back from losses. The Colts just fell to the Titans 24-17, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos just lost to the Raiders 32-23, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. The Colts and Broncos are both 1-3 ATS on the season. 

This line opened with Denver listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money laid the points with the Broncos early, steaming Denver up from -2.5 to -3.5. Once the hook was available, we saw some buyback on the Colts +3.5, dropping several shops back down to 3. Essentially, we are seeing two-back action around the key number of 3, with early money taking Denver -2.5 and late money grabbing Colts +3.5. Currently 56% of bets and 70% of money is laying the points with the Broncos at home, signaling a +14% sharp money discrepancy in Denver's favor. 

There are conflicting system matches on both sides. On the one hand, dogs are 38-25 ATS (60%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs last season, like the Colts here, are 28-14 ATS (67%). Dogs who failed to cover last week are 14-4 ATS (78%). Primetime dogs are 59% ATS since 2019. However, historically we've seen Thursday Night home favorites do well, going 56% ATS over the past decade. 

In terms of the total, smart money is leaning on the under. The total opened at 43.5 and has fallen to 42. The under is getting 71% bets and 75% money. Unders are 38-26 (59%) this season. Primetime unders are 9-4 this season and 59% since 2019. Unders that fall at least a half point are 23-15 (61%). Both teams have been profitable to the under, with the Colts 4-0 to the under and the Broncos 3-1 to the under. 

There are several key injuries in this one, with the star running backs on both sides, Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams, both out due to injury. 

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College Lines Revealed: ATS record is a great indicator as to if the market overvalues or undervalues a team, especially late in the season. Consider betting on teams with a strong ATS record if you believe the betting market has not properly adjusted. View more tips

Live Bet Sunday: Unless you really feel you need to get out of a bet, you don't have to attempt to hedge when the game isn't going as you predicted. Hedging is just raises the floor, but lowers the ceiling on you original investment. Unless you're confident that you're you're going to win your hedge, sometimes it's best to ride out the original bet. View more tips

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Matt Youmans: Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers. View more picks.

Dave Tuley: Broncos +8 vs. RavensView more picks.

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