For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7:45 p.m. ET to offer an action update.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is flowing tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup.
8:20 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams
This Thursday Night Football showdown is a rematch of Super Bowl 53. The Patriots (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) are playing for their postseason lives. New England is on the outside looking in but remains in the hunt. They basically need to win out the rest of the way and also get some help. The Pats are 4-1 over their last five games and have won two straight, including a 45-0 beatdown of the Chargers last week, easily covering as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) have won three of four and just took down the Cardinals 38-28, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. The Rams are currently the 3-seed in the NFC playoffs but need to keep winning to fend off the Seahawks for the NFC division crown. The Patriots are + 19 in point differential while the Rams are + 58.
This line opened with the Rams listed as 6.5-point home favorites. Pros have pounced on the Patriots plus the points, which has dropped the line from 6.5 to 5. New England has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (47-25 ATS, 65%) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-31 ATS, 63%). Primetime dogs are also 25-13 ATS (66%) on the season. While this is a road game for New England, the Patriots won't have to travel as they stayed in Los Angeles and practiced at UCLA all week following last week's game against the Chargers. New England will have the unique benefit of playing in the same road stadium two weeks in a row. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS).
Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5. Primetime unders are 23-15 (61%) this season. Both teams are both 8-4 to the under. The under is 5-0 in Rams home games this season. The under has hit in four straight Patriots games.