Thursday Night Football best bets: Commanders at Bears

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

October 13, 2022 09:56 AM
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The ability to bet makes every game more interesting. We found that out last Thursday and we can do the same this week with the Commanders-Bears game.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for our best bets for the rest of Week 6 as we get closer to kickoff.

Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night.

Washington Commanders (-1, 38) at Chicago Bears

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Danny Burke: Carson Wentz has lost four out of his first five games with the Commanders. Is anyone actually shocked by this? Season after season, team after team, game after game, this guy has shown he cannot be trusted. Yet, bettors still want to invest their hard-earned money on him. He is not the same player he was pre-injury in Philly. He already has six interceptions and is facing a Bears defense that has accumulated five picks so far (and is getting back its top cornerback in Jaylon Johnson). Heck, even Wentz’s own head coach, Ron Rivera, said the issues with his team revolve around the quarterback. And Rivera’s QB will have even fewer weapons this week with tight end Logan Thomas and wide receiver Jahan Dotson out with injuries. 

The Bears are dealing with QB issues of their own, but at least Justin Fields is trending in the right direction. Once Bears OC Luke Getsy finally had a lightbulb moment — that he should let his quarterback throw the ball — Fields proceeded to complete 12 of 13 passes for 135 yards and one touchdown in the second half at Minnesota. This is clearly the recipe for offensive success for the Bears, and it would be wise to keep it going against a Commanders defense that ranks 30th in both DVOA Pass and Yards per Completion (12.2). 

Over the summer, when I looked through the Bears schedule and circled the games I thought would be advantageous for them, this was certainly one. That sentiment grew even stronger when I saw how much worse the Wentz experience looked in Washington, heard the lack of optimism expressed by Rivera and realized how tough it would be for the Commanders to come into Soldier Field on a short week after a gruesome loss. This spot is just more favorable to Chicago. I know it seems gross, but there’s only a finite amount of situations to back the Bears — and this is certainly one of them.

Pick: Bears + 1

Josh Appelbaum: This total opened at 40 and quickly fell to 38. This line movement is notable because 55% of bets are taking the Over, yet we’ve seen this line drop. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Under, with pros leaning on a lower-scoring game. Unders are 47-33 (59%) this season. “Thursday Night Football” Unders are 4-1 this season and 16-7 (70%) since the start of last season. Prime-time Unders are 11-5 (69%) overall this season. Unders that fall at least a half point are 28-17 (62%) this season. We also have a bit of a weather-based Under play, as the forecast calls for high 40s with 10-15 mph winds at Soldier Field. When the wind blows 10+ mph, the Under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Adrian Hill, the lead referee, is 62% to the Under historically. Both teams are 3-2 to the Under this season. When you add up all of these variables, I have to take a shot on a lower-scoring game. 

Play: Under 38

Adam Burke: The Windy City will live up to its nickname Thursday night with gusts of 20-25 mph throughout most of the game. That will make things more challenging for the two quarterbacks, which is something neither Carson Wentz nor Justin Fields want to be dealing with given their seasons so far.

Wentz has already been sacked 20 times and thrown six interceptions, while Fields has had three games with fewer than 10 completions (his season high is just 15). A total in the upper 30s takes into account how inefficient these two offenses have been, but the weather presents some additional difficulties. 

Both offenses have low conversion rates on third down, with the Commanders ranking 20th and the Bears 28th. Chicago does have the league’s worst third-down defense, but Washington seems unlikely to take full advantage. The Commanders rank fifth in third-down defense, so that will make life even tougher on the Bears with their limited offensive potential.

I’d recommend looking for some punt props, which get posted across the market on game day.

Pick: Under 38

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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Follow The Money: Consider schedules before betting on a team. What happened before and what is coming up can impact if a team is worth backing. Like SEA hosting CAR (off their bye) with SF in Week 15.  View more tips.

The Greg Peterson Experience: Have a value in mind for a dropoff to a backup quarterback from the starter, as many QBs are injured at this time of the season. View more tips.

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Dave Tuley: Jets +10 at Bills.  ​​​View more picks.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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VSiN PrimeTime: Be aware of injuries on the offensive line, skill positions get the most publicity, but if an elite tackle is out it could have a huge impact on the game. View more tips.

A Numbers Game: If you’re just getting into soccer betting, make sure you know exactly what you’re betting. i.e. Double chance, to win, to advance, etc. View more tips.
 
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Chuck Edel: Kansas State +2.5 vs TCU. View more picks.

Kenny White: Fresno State +3 vs Boise St. View more picks.
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