Thursday NHL Sharp Report

preds

Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from, including 5 NBA games, 11 NHL games and a full College Basketball card. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.

I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Last night NHL home favorites went 2-0, with the Stars (-200) beating the Kraken 5-2 and the Bruins (-350) thumping the Canadiens 5-1. Home favorites have consistently cashed all season, going 234-124 (65%) with a 4% ROI. 

With this system in mind, let's discuss a few Thursday NHL games that fit the model...

 

7 p.m. ET: Columbus Blue Jackets (16-17-1) at Carolina Hurricanes (24-7-2)

The Blue Jackets have struggled as of late, going just 4-12 over their last 16 games. Columbus just fell to Chicago 4-2, losing as a 105 home dog. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are 9-2 over their last 11 games but are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Panthers as a -105 home dog. Carolina is listed as a -220 home favorite and Columbus a  200 road dog. The Hurricanes match several systems. Conference home favorites are 137-71 (66%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 76-25 (75%). The Blue Jackets are 9-17 as a dog and 5-11 on the road. The Hurricanes are 20-5 as a favorite and 11-3-1 at home. Carolina also holds a rest advantage, having last played on January 8th compared to Columbus last playing the 11th. Columbus is -14 in goal differential. Carolina is  42. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Flyers (13-15-7) at Boston Bruins (20-11-2)

These teams are trending in completely opposite directions. The Flyers have been decimated by COVID and injuries and lost five straight. On the flip side, the Bruins have won three straight and are 6-1 since play resumed after the Christmas pause. Boston is listed as a -250 home favorite and Philadelphia a  200 dog. Home favorites off a win against an opponent off a loss are 77-28 (73%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more off a win are 50-12 (81%). The Flyers are 8-19 as a dog and 7-8-4 on the road. The Bruins are 16-7 as a favorite and 10-6-1 at home. Tuukka Rask is expected to make his season debut for the Bruins tonight. Boston is  19 in goal differential. Philadelphia ia -29. 

 

8 p.m. ET: Buffalo Sabres (10-19-6) are Nashville Predators (24-11-2)

This matchup looks lopsided on paper. The Sabres have lost six straight while the Predators have won five straight. Nashville opened as a -280 home favorite and Buffalo a  250 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves. They've laid the chalk with Nashville, steaming the Preds up to -300. Home favorites with line moves in their favor 146-65 (69%). Home favorites off a win against an opponent off a loss are 77-28 (73%) this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 76-25 (75%). Buffalo is 9-24 as a dog and 4-8-4 on the road. Nashville is 10-4 as a favorite and 11-5 at home. Buffalo is expected to miss several players due to COVID protocols. Buffalo is -33 in goal differential. Nashville is  18. 

 

10:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Penguins (21-9-5) at Los Angeles Kings (18-13-5)

Both of these teams are playing well and have gone 4-1 over their last five games. The Penguins opened as a short -120 road favorite and the Kings a  110 home dog. Respected money has laid the chalk with Pittsburgh, steaming the Pens up to -130. Favorites off a win, like Pittsburgh, are 199-102 (66%) this season. The Penguins are 15-8 as a favorite and 11-4-3 on the road. The Kings are 9-14 as a dog and 12-8-2 at home. Pittsburgh is  26 in goal differential. Los Angeles is  6. Both of these teams are giving roughly 2.6 GPG. The difference is Pittsburgh's offense, averaging 3.31 GPG vs 2.78 GPG for Los Angeles.

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