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Thursday NHL Sharp Report

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Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from, including 4 NBA games, 11 NHL games and a full College Basketball card. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.

I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's change gears and discuss some NHL betting...

NHL favorites have dominated so far this season, going 331-189 (64%) overall.  A $100 bettor would be up roughly $1700 right now betting all chalk. One of the top favorite spots has been home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss (73-24, 75%). Big favorites -200 or more are 92-26 (78%). 

With these systems in mind, let's discuss a few Thursday games that fit the model...

 

7 p.m. ET: Columbus Blue Jackets (15-15-1) at New Jersey Devils (13-16-5)

The Devils opened as -120 favorites and respected money has steamed New Jersey up to -130. The Devils have played well as of late, going 3-1 over their last four games. Meanwhile, Columbus is just 1-4 over their last five. Home favorites with a line move in their favor are 137-63 (69%) this season. The Blue Jackets are 9-15 as a dog and 5-10 on the road. Columbus is just 2-6 against divisional opponents and will also be missing star defenseman Zack Werenski. The total opened at 6 and is being juiced to the over at -115 or -120 depending on the shop. These are two of the top "over" teams in the NHL, with Columbus 21-10 to the over and New Jersey 20-12 to the over. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Minnesota Wild (19-10-2) at Boston Bruins (17-10-2) 

These teams are trending in opposite directions. The ice-cold Wild have lost five straight while the red-hot Bruins have won three straight. This line opened with Boston listed as a -160 home favorite and pros have laid the chalk, steaming the Bruins up to -170. Favorites off a win are 184-94 (66%) this season. The Bruins are 15-6 as a favorite and a 9-5-1 at home. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames (17-8-6) at Tampa Bay Lightning (22-8-5)

The Lightning opened as a -140 home favorite and have ticked up to -145. Tampa Bay just crushed Columbus 7-2 while the Flames just fell to the Panthers 6-2. Home favorites off a win against opponents off a loss are 72-24 (75%) this season. Tampa Bay is 19-9 as a favorite this season and 11-3-3 at home, one of the best home teams in the NHL. The under 6 is being juiced to -120, signaling some liability on a lower scoring game. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Winnipeg Jets (16-11-5) at Colorado Avalanche (19-8-2)

The Avalanche opened as a -200 home favorite and have quickly been steamed up to -220. Conference home favorites are 132-67 (66%) this season. Colorado has won two straight as well. Home favorites -200 or more off a win are 46-11 (81%). Colorado is 18-8 as a favorite and 11-2-1 at home. Winnipeg is 3-6 as a dog and 6-5-4 on the road. The Avs' advantage comes on offense. Colorado is averaging 4.24 goals per game while Winnipeg is averaging 3.06. The Avs have won nine straight games at home. The total is 6 with the over juiced up to -120. Colorado is 19-6-4 to the over this season, best in the NHL. 

 

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