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Thursday NFL Sharp Report Giants vs. Washington (9-16)


Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu to choose from, including Thursday Night Football and 9 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's first NFL game of Week 2.

8:20 p.m. ET: New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1)

This Thursday Night Football matchup features a pair of division rivals looking to bounce back from disappointing opening week losses. The Giants got manhandled by the Broncos, losing 27-13 and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. Similarly, Washington fell to the Chargers 20-16, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. At BetMGM, the Giants' updated season win total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -145. Washington's updated win total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120. 

This line opened with Washington listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. With Ryan Fitzpatrick injured for the Football Team and back-up Taylor Heinicke starting in his place, respected money has pounced on the Giants getting points, dropping the line from 4.5 to 3.5. Several shops are juicing up the Giants +3.5 at -115, signaling a possible fall to the key number of 3. those looking to back the Giants will want to pounce on the hook before it evaporates, that way a three-points Giants' loss will result in a cover instead of a push. On the flip side, Washington backers would be inclined to wait to see if it falls to -3, that was a three-point win pushes instead of loses. 

The Giants check off several boxes for value-minded bettors. New York is contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game, as just under two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Washington at home. The Giants are also a divisional dog in a low total game. Divisional matchups provide an edge to dogs as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and leads to close games, which benefits the team getting points. Low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Dogs went 12-4 ATS (75%) in Week 1. Also, teams coming off a Week 1 loss of 10-points or more have gone 21-10 ATS (67.7%) in Week 2 over the past decade. This speaks to the importance of not falling victim to recency bias. When two winless teams face off, the dog is 34-24 ATS (58.6%) the past decade. The lead ref, Scott Novak, has historically favored road teams (40-27 ATS, 59.7%). One injury to monitor here: Giants star running back Saquon Barkley is questionable with a knee injury. 

We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. This total opened at 42.5 and has fallen to 40.5 despite a majority of public bets taking the over. This signals wiseguy reverse line movement on the under. Primetime unders were 27-19 (58.7%) last season. Both of these teams went under in Week 1. Unders went 9-7 across the NFL in Week 1. 

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