Thursday NFL Sharp Report: Bills at Rams

September 8, 2022 02:33 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily: Morning Bets, a new 10-15 minute podcast every week day that quickly hits on the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For an in-depth breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Big Bets at 2:45 p.m ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NFL season opener...


8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

The Bills finished 11-6 last season, losing in overtime to the Chiefs 42-36 in the Divisional Round. Buffalo's win total is 11.5 with the over juiced to -140 at DraftKings, tied with the Bucs for the highest win total of any team. The Bills are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at 600. Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP at 650. On the flip side, the Rams finished 12-5 in the regular season and then ran the table in the playoffs, beating the Bengals 23-20 to win the Super Bowl. The Rams' win total is 10.5 this season, with both sides listed at -110. Los Angeles has the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl at 1200.

This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with some books opening the Rams a 1-point home favorite and others opening the Bills a 1-point road favorite. We've seen a combination of respected money and heavy public support pound Buffalo, steaming the Bills up to a 2.5-point road favorite. At DraftKings, 69% of bets and 74% of money are laying the points with Buffalo. The Bills are -135 on the moneyline. The Rams are 115. 

Despite the line moving against them, the Rams match several profitable betting systems. NFL Week 1 dogs are 53-39 ATS (58%) since 2016. Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-114 (58%) since 2018. Sean McVay is 9-6 ATS in his career as a dog. Los Angeles also has notable contrarian value, receiving only 31% of bets as a home dog in a heavily. bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 60-42 ATS (59%) over the past two seasons. Also, we've seen some sharp buyback on the Rams, with some books reaching Los Angeles +2.5 and falling back down to 2. The Rams are also in a prime teaser spot. By teasing Los Angeles up from 2.5 to 8.5, you pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

The total hasn't budged off the opener of 52. The over is getting 60% of bets and 64% of money. However, despite the public going over, the total hasn't risen. It briefly got up to 53.5 but quickly got bet right back down to 52. Some books are even hinting at a drop down to 51.5. This signals some wiseguy line freeze liability on the under. Primetime unders are 86-62 (58%) over the past three seasons.

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