Wake up with VSiN Daily: Morning Bets, a new 10-15 minute podcast every week day that quickly hits on the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For an in-depth breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Big Bets at 2:45 p.m ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NFL season opener...
8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
The Bills finished 11-6 last season, losing in overtime to the Chiefs 42-36 in the Divisional Round. Buffalo's win total is 11.5 with the over juiced to -140 at DraftKings, tied with the Bucs for the highest win total of any team. The Bills are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at + 600. Josh Allen is the favorite to win MVP at + 650. On the flip side, the Rams finished 12-5 in the regular season and then ran the table in the playoffs, beating the Bengals 23-20 to win the Super Bowl. The Rams' win total is 10.5 this season, with both sides listed at -110. Los Angeles has the 5th best odds to win the Super Bowl at + 1200.
This line opened at roughly a pick'em, with some books opening the Rams a 1-point home favorite and others opening the Bills a 1-point road favorite. We've seen a combination of respected money and heavy public support pound Buffalo, steaming the Bills up to a 2.5-point road favorite. At DraftKings, 69% of bets and 74% of money are laying the points with Buffalo. The Bills are -135 on the moneyline. The Rams are + 115.
Despite the line moving against them, the Rams match several profitable betting systems. NFL Week 1 dogs are 53-39 ATS (58%) since 2016. Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-114 (58%) since 2018. Sean McVay is 9-6 ATS in his career as a dog. Los Angeles also has notable contrarian value, receiving only 31% of bets as a home dog in a heavily. bet primetime game. Primetime dogs are 60-42 ATS (59%) over the past two seasons. Also, we've seen some sharp buyback on the Rams, with some books reaching Los Angeles +2.5 and falling back down to + 2. The Rams are also in a prime teaser spot. By teasing Los Angeles up from + 2.5 to + 8.5, you pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 52. The over is getting 60% of bets and 64% of money. However, despite the public going over, the total hasn't risen. It briefly got up to 53.5 but quickly got bet right back down to 52. Some books are even hinting at a drop down to 51.5. This signals some wiseguy line freeze liability on the under. Primetime unders are 86-62 (58%) over the past three seasons.