Thursday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded slate to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 11 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also join Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors

This is Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 3-1 and can eliminate the Mavericks with a victory tonight. Golden State led the series 3-0 before Dallas avoided elimination in Game 4 with a 119-109 win in Dallas, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Golden State.

This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Golden State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Warriors fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Dallas plus the points in a desperation spot. Teams receiving line movement in their favor are 38-28 ATS (58%) this postseason. If they're also coming off a win, these teams improve to 22-14 ATS (61%). Dallas is 28-21 ATS (57%) on the road this season. 

Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 216.5 to 215.5. Unders are 53-31 (63%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 31-14 (69%). When the total is 210 or more, the under is 46-22 (68%). The under is 28-19 in Warriors home games this season. The under is 6-3 over the last nine Mavs games. The under is 4-2 over the last six Warriors home games. The total is 2-2 this series. 

Leading 3-1, the Warriors are are -3000 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +1200 to be the first time ever to come back from an 0-3 series deficit. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at -140. Dallas is a +3500 longshot. 

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