Thursday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

mavs

Today bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from including 2 NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 8 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also join Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff doubleheader...

 

7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead the series 3-2 and can eliminate the 76ers with a victory tonight. Miami is coming off a 120-85 blowout win in Game 5, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Philadelphia. This line opened with the 76ers listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen the line inch up to 76ers -2.5 at some shops, signaling some wiseguy support for the home team. Favorites are 40-29 ATS (58%) this postseason. Home teams in the conference semifinals at 15-5 ATS (75%). Favorites are 50-19 (73%) straight up. Philadelphia is -135 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 208 to 207. Unders are 44-25 (64%) this postseason. Unders that fall are 25-11 (69%). Leading 3-2, the Heat are -375 favorites to advance. The 76ers are +280 dogs. 

 

9:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

This is Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead 3-2 and can punch their ticket to the Conference Finals with a win tonight. Phoenix is coming off a 110-80 blowout win in Game 5, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Dallas. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Suns. However, despite this lopsided support the line hasn't budged. The fact that it hasn't risen to Suns -3 or -4 signals sharp line freeze liability on the home dog Mavericks. Sharps have also gotten down hard on the under, driving the total down from 214 to 212. The Mavs are 33-12 to the under at home this season. The under is 3-2 this series and has cashed in the last three games overall. Leading 3-2, the Suns are -750 favorites to win the series. The Mavs are +500 dogs. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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