Thursday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Today bettors have a loaded menu of Thursday sweats to choose from including one NBA playoff game, two NHL playoff games and 8 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. 

I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also check in with Danny Burke on Rush Hour at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's lone NBA playoff game...


8:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

This is Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat lead the series 1-0 after securing a 118-107 win in Game 1, easily covering as 4.5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, Miami opened as a 4-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 4 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing Boston plus the points in a bounce back spot. 

Teams receiving line movement in their favor are 34-26 ATS (57%) this postseason. Boston has also been profitable as a dog and off a loss. The Celtics are 18-9 ATS (67%) as a dog this season, including 5-1 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics are also 21-13 ATS (62%) off a loss, including 3-0 ATS off a loss in the postseason.

Pros have also hit the over. The total opened at a low 206 and has been bet up to 207.5. Some shops are even up to 208. Typically, we see a vast majority of postseason totals fall to the under. After all, unders are 50-27 (65%) this postseason. Despite this highly profitable trend to the under, this is a rare instance in which the total has risen off the opener. This indicates respected money banking on a higher scoring game. The over cashed easily in Game 1, landing on 225 after closing at 203.

Leading 1-0, the Heat are -150 favorites to win the series. The Celtics are  a +125 dog. Boston is expected to get starting point guard Marcus Smart back from injury tonight. Smart missed Game 1 with a foot injury. However, Boston is expected to miss Al Horford once again. Horford missed Game 1 due to COVID protocols. 

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