Thursday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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Bettors have a loaded Thursday slate to choose from today, including a trio of NBA playoff games, 10 MLB games and 11 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market upset and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET. 

Until then, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's NBA playoff action...

 

7:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves

This series is tied 1-1. The Timberwolves stole the opener 130-117, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Then the Grizzlies bounced back with a 124-96 blowout win in Game 2, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Minnesota. This line opened with the Grizzlies listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The recency biased public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with the Grizzlies, especially after they just earned a blowout win in Game 2. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from Grizzlies -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the points with Minnesota. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 238 to 236.5. Playoffs unders are 16-7 (70%) so far this postseason. If the total falls at least a half point, the under is 10-4 (71%). With the series tied 1-1, the Grizzlies are -225 favorites to win the series. The Timberwolves are +190 dogs.

 

9 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz

This series is tied 1-1. The Jazz took the opener 99-93, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. Then the Mavericks posted a 110-104 victory in Game 2, winning outright as 5-point home dogs. Now the series shifts to Utah. Tonight's rematch opened with the Jazz listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. Respected money seems to think this line is a bit high and grabbed Dallas with the points, dropping the line from 7.5 to 7. Several shops briefly touched 6.5 at times, signaling all liability on the side of Dallas. Pros have also hit this over, steaming the total up from 209 to 210.5. With the series tied 1-1, the Jazz are -225 favorites to advance. The Mavericks are +185 dogs to win the series. Once again, Mavs star Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game with a calf strain. But Doncic could return before the series is over. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

The Warriors hold a commanding 2-0 lead in this series. Golden State won the opener 123-107, covering as 6.5-point favorites, and then won 126-106 in Game 2, covering as 7-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Denver. Tonight's rematch opener with Golden State listed as a short 2-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and they're hammering the Warriors minus the short chalk price. However, despite this lopsided betting, the line hasn't budged off Warriors -2. In fact, it's even dropped to 1.5 at times. This signals a sharp line freeze on Denver, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Denver also matches the wiseguy situational edge on desperate teams going down 0-2 and then coming home. These teams have historically come out guns blazing and covered the first quarter and first half lines at a decent rate. The Nuggets are a virtual pick'em or 1-point favorite for both angles. Pros have also leaned under here, dropping the total from 225 to 224. When the total is 220 or more, the under is 12-5 (71%) this postseason. With the Warriors leading 2-0, Golden State is now -1400 to win the series. Denver is +800.

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