Thursday NBA Playoffs and MLB Sharp Report (7-1)

July 1, 2021 01:08 AM

The summer is heating up and today the calendar officially flips to July. Bettors have another loaded slate Thursday, including 13 MLB games and 1 NBA playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three key games tonight.

1:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (39-41) at New York Yankees (41-39)

The Angels have taken two of three so far in this series, highlighted by a come-from-behind miracle Wednesday. The Angels trailed 8-4 entering the 9th and scored 7-runs to stun New York 11-8, cashing as + 105 road dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, the Angels send out righty Griffin Canning (5-4, 4.95 ERA) and the Yankees counter with lefty Jordan Montgomery (3-2, 4.06 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -160 home favorite and Los Angeles a + 145 road dog. Sharps expect the Yankees to bounce back from their brutal collapse last night and have steamed New York up from -160 to -175. The Yankees have value as a non-division home favorite (277-162, 63% this season). Non-division home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 155-84 (65%). 

7:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (48-33) at Cleveland Indians (42-35)

Both of these American League contenders have struggled as of late. Houston just got swept at home by the lowly Orioles and are now just 1-5 over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Indians just dropped two of three at home against the Tigers. Cleveland is just 1-4 over their last five games. In tonight's series opener, the Astros give the ball to lefty Framber Valdez (4-1, 2.11 ERA) and the Indians start righty J.C. Mejia (1-2, 4.94 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a hefty -165 road favorite and Cleveland a + 150 home dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, yet we've seen pros hammer Houston, steaming the Astros up from -165 to -180. Non-division favorites with at least 10-cents of steam in their direction are 163-94 (63%) this season. Houston is 28-18 against righties. Cleveland is just 15-16 against lefties. The Astros will lean on their bats in this one. Houston is hitting .277, which ranks 1st in MLB. The Tribe are hitting .230, which ranks 22nd.

8:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The series is tied 2-2. The Hawks are coming off an impressive 110-88 win in Game 4, winning outright as 9-point dogs despite missing star point guard Trae Young. Now the series shifts backs to Milwaukee. This line opened with the Bucks listed as a 3-point home favorite. With Giannis Antetukuonmpo doubtful for this game (knee), we've seen sharps jump on the Hawks plus the points. This has forced oddsmakers to adjust the Bucks down from -3 to -2. Some shops are hinting at a further fall to -1.5. Atlanta is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a road dog this postseason. Young remains questionable for tonight after missing Game 4. With this line moving to Atlanta, you have to wonder if there is growing optimism that Young suits up. We've also seen heavy under action drop this total from 218 to 215. The under is 3-1 this series. The under is 12-3-1 (80%) in Hawks games this postseason. With the series tied 2-2, the Bucks are slight -125 favorites to advance to the Finals. The Hawks are a + 105 dog to win the series. Milwaukee is + 280 to win the NBA Title. The Hawks are + 600. The Suns are the favorite at -190. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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The Handle: The American League playoff picture is going to be highly competitive. Look to bet overs on win totals as opposed to a team making the playoffs. View more tips.