For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Patrick Meagher from 12 to 2 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET to offer a last minute market update as well.
In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is leaning for tonight's NBA Finals showdown...
9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics
This is Game 6 of the NBA Finals. The Warriors lead the series 3-2 and can hoist the championship trophy with a win tonight. Golden State trailed in the series 2-1 but have since won two straight, upsetting Boston 104-94 in Game 4 as 4-point road dogs and then winning again 104-94 in Game 5, covering as 4-point home favorites. Now the series shifts back to Boston with the Celtics facing elimination.
This line opened with Boston listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line tick up from Celtics -3.5 to -4. Boston is receiving 46% of bets but 67% of money at DraftKings, signaling some sharp reverse line movement in their favor. The Celtics also enjoy a wiseguy "low bets, higher dollars" bet split.
Favorites are 53-39 ATS (58%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 30-18 ATS (63%). Favorites are 63-29 (68%) straight up. Boston is -165 on the moneyline. The Celtics are 25-14 ATS (64%) off a loss this season, including 7-1 ATS/SU off a loss this postseason. The Warriors are only 21-28 ATS (43%) on the road this season, including 3-6 ATS on the road this postseason.
Sharps are also expecting another lower scoring game, as we've seen this total tick down from 210.5 to 210. Unders are 57-35 (62%) this postseason. When the total falls, the under is 25-16 (69%). When the total is 210 or more, the under is 49-25 (66%). The under is 3-2 this series and 2-0 the last two games. This also matches a late series under trend, as tired legs and teams facing elimination tend to lock down on defense and lead to more unders in Games 6 and 7.
Leading 3-2, the Warriors are -400 favorites to win the NBA Title. The Celtics are + 310 dogs. Steph Curry (-350) is the favorite to win Finals MVP, followed by Jayson Taum (+ 375), Andrew Wiggins (+ 1800) and Jaylen Brown (+ 2500).