Thursday NBA Finals Game 2 Sharp Report and Prop Bets (7-8)

July 8, 2021 01:07 AM

Bettors have another loaded slate today, including 11 MLB games and Game 2 of the NBA Finals. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon from noon-2 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's NBA Finals matchup...

9 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns

This is Game 2 of the NBA Finals. The Suns lead the series 1-0. Phoenix took the opener 118-105, covering as 5-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the Suns opened as 5.5-point home favorites. The public is once again laying the points with Phoenix, who has a track record of covering numbers this postseason.. The Suns are 9-3 ATS as a favorite and 6-2 ATS as home favorite this playoffs. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen the line remain frozen at 5.5 or even dip to 5 at some shops. This signals some sharp liability on the Bucks plus the points. Milwaukee also has buy-low contrarian value as an unpopular dog in a heavily-bet primetime playoff game. We've also seen some wiseguy action target the total. The public saw the over cash in Game 1 and they are happy to take the over again tonight and root for points. However, the total has fallen from 220.5 to 219.5, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the under. Leading the series 1-0, the Suns are now -300 favorites to win the NBA Title. The Bucks are + 240 dogs. Giannis played in Game 1 and is expected to start again tonight. The Suns will be without depth big man Dario Saric, who tore his ACL in the opener and will miss the remainder of the playoffs. 

Game 2 Prop Bets to Consider

  • Tucker Over 4.5 points (-140): Tucker has gone over this number in four straight games
  • Paul Over 21.5 points (-125): Paul had 32-points in Game 1 and has gone over this number in three straight games
  • Paul Under 2.5 turnovers (-185): Paul has gone under this number in 13 of 15 games this postseason
  • Giannis Over 11.5 rebounds (-130): Giannis grabbed 17 rebounds in the series opener. He has gone over this number in 11 of 16 games
  • Giannis Over 2.5 turnovers (-160): Giannis has gone over in 10 of his last 12 games
  • Holiday Over 4.5 rebounds (-150): Holiday has gone over this number in four straight games
  • Holiday Over 8.5 assists (-140): Holiday has gone over in five straight games
  • Holiday Over 2.5 turnovers (-120): Holiday has gone over this number in five of his last seven games
  • Johnson Over 11.5 points/rebounds/assists (-115): Johnson has gone over this number in five of his last six games, including four straight at home. 

Updated NBA Finals MVP at BetMGM

Paul -145

Booker + 350

Giannis + 500

Middleton + 1000

Ayton + 1400

Holiday + 8000

Exact Series Outcome

Suns 4-0 (+ 500)

Suns 4-1 (+ 260)

Suns 4-2 (+ 450)

Suns 4-3 (+ 650

Bucks 4-1 (+ 2200)

Bucks 4-2 (+ 750)

Bucks 4-3 (+ 650)

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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