Thursday NBA Draft and MLB Sharp Report

banchero

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben WIlson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also join Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET to offer a final NBA Draft update.

 

The NBA Draft takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Here are the latest developments across the market...

Late Banchero Steam: We've seen some fascinating back-and-forth movement on who will be selected with the top pick. For nearly the entire pre-draft process, Jabari Smith was the favorite. The Auburn big man opened at -105 and reached as high as -500 throughout the week. At BetMGM, Smith is receiving 33% of bets and 65% of money, the top smart money discrepancy of any player. 

But then late Wednesday night we saw massive unexpected steam hit Paolo Banchero, with the Duke forward leapfrogging Smith to become a -190 favorite to be selected first overall at DraftKings. Banchero was roughly +2000 to go first overall just a week ago. He entered Wednesday as high as +300.

Here are the updated prices for the first five picks at DraftKings

1st Pick (Magic): Banchero (-190), Smith (+145), Chet Holmgren (+850)

2nd Pick (Thunder): Holmgren (-150), Smith (+120), Banchero (+650)

3rd Pick (Rockets): Smith (+125), Holmgren (+150), Banchero (+170)

4th Pick (Kings): Jaden Ivey (-175), Keegan Murray (+145), Dyson Daniels (+1000)

5th Pick (Pistons): Murray (+130), Bennedict Mathurin (+200), Ivey (+225)

 

Now let's discuss several MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

12:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (30-39) at Miami Marlins (31-36)

The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 9-8 as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-4 as -195 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Rockies hand the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland (3-5, 4.46 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett (1-2, 4.85 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a short -115 home favorite and Colorado a -105 road dog. Pros have gotten down on Miami to complete the sweep, steaming the Marlins up from -115 to -135. Non-division home favorites are 247-177 (58%) this season. The Marlins are 17-10 as a favorite and 17-14 at home. The Rockies are 21-32 as a dog and 11-20 on the road. Miami's biggest advantage comes on the mound (3.93 team ERA vs 4.98 for Colorado). The Marlins are +17 in run differential. The Rockies are -61. 

 

12:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (38-30) are Atlanta Braves (40-30)

This is the fourth and final game of the series, with the Braves holding a 2-1 edge through three games. Atlanta is coming off a 4-3 win last night as -140 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Giants start lefty Alex Wood (5-5, 4.32 ERA) and the Braves rebuttal with righty Kyle Wright (7-4, 2.94 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -145 home favorite and the Giants a +130 road dog. Sharps seem to be riding the hot hand, steaming the Braves up from -145 to -155. Atlanta is 33-18 as a favorite, 22-15 at home and 17-7 against lefties this season. The Braves have the edge in hitting (.247 vs .239) and on the mound (3.72 ERA vs 3.94 ERA). Atlanta is 17-3 over their last 20 games. 

 

3:37 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (31-39) at Oakland Athletics (23-47)

The Mariners have won the first two games of this AL West series, winning the opener 8-2 as -125 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-0 as -135 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, Seattle taps lefty Robbie Ray (6-6, 4.25 ERA) and Oakland starts righty Frankie Montas (3-7, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a modest -115 road favorite and the Athletics a +105 home dog. Pros seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and have steamed Seattle up from -115 to -135. Road favorites are 242-144 (63%) this season. The Mariners also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Oakland is just 18-37 as a dog, 8-14 against lefties and 8-27 at home, the worst home record in MLB. Seattle is hitting .235 while Oakland sits at .209. The Mariners are -4 in run differential. The Athletics are -104. 

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