Thursday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben Wilson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


6:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (44-32) at Philadelphia Phillies (39-37)

The Braves have taken the first two games of this NL East grudge match, winning the opener 5-3 as +110 road dogs and then winning again on Wednesday 4-1 as -140 road favorites. In tonight's series finale, Atlanta hands the ball to righty Ian Anderson (6-4, 4.60 ERA) and Philadelphia counters with fellow righty Aaron Nola (4-5, 2.98 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -125 home favorite and the Braves a +110 road dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Phillies to avoid the sweep, steaming Philadelphia up from -125 to -150. The Phillies are 25-21 as a favorite. The Braves are 6-11 as a dog. Anderson has an ERA of 5.06 in the month of June while Nola sits at 2.00. We could be looking at a lower scoring game as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the under is 310-261 (54%) this season. 


6:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (56-20) at Houston Astros (47-27)

These are the two best teams in the American League and both are playing well as of late (both 7-3 in their last 10 games). The Yankees just swept the Athletics at home while the Astros just swept a short two game series against the Mets on the road. In tonight's series opener, New York starts righty Luis Severino (4-2, 3.38 ERA) and Houston taps fellow righty Luis Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA). This line opened at  virtual pick'em with both sides listed at roughly -110. Respected money has pounced on the best team in baseball at a short price, steaming the Yankees up from -110 to -120. Non-division road favorites are 143-74 (66%) this season. New York is 52-19 as a favorite, 22-11 on the road and 38-13 against righties. The Yankees also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Astros could be shorthanded as star slugger Yordan Alvarez left yesterday's game after a collision with teammate Jeremy Pena. 


10:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (25-52) at Seattle Mariners (36-41)

These AL West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Athletics are 2-7 over their last nine games and just got swept on the road at the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 7-2 over their last nine games and just took two of three at home against the Orioles. In tonight's series opener, Oakland hands the ball to righty Adrian Martinez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Seattle taps fellow righty Logan Gilbert (8-3, 2.44 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a hefty -200 home favorite and the Athletics a +185 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the expensive chalk price and have steamed the Mariners up from -200 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 115-45 (72%) this season. Seattle also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Athletics are just 20-43 as a dog, 17-24 on the road and 17-35 against righties. The Mariners are 18-11 as favorites, and 31-28 against righties. Seattle leads the season series 4-2. The Mariners will lean on their bats, hitting .232 compared to .210 for the Athletics. Seattle is 5-2 in Gilbert's last six starts.

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