Thursday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in-depth analysis of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll will be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's dive into a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

3:45 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (71-33) at San Francisco Giants (51-54)

The Dodgers have taken the first three games of this four game NL West set. Los Angeles is coming off a 3-0 win on Wednesday night, cashing as -165 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Dodgers turn to lefty ace Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.66 ERA) and the Giants tap righty Jakob Junis (4-2, 2.78 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -195 road favorite and the San Francisco a +180 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're riding the red-hot Dodgers to complete the sweep, steaming Los Angeles up from -195 to -205. Road favorites are 346-224 (61%) this season. The Dodgers also have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (8). Los Angeles is 69-32 as a favorite, 36-18 on the road and 47-21 against righties. The Dodgers are hitting .259. compared to .234 for the Giants. Los Angeles leads the season series 9-3. Kershaw has a 2.23 ERA in six July starts. 

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (55-49) at Detroit Tigers (42-64)

This AL non-division showdown features one team in the thick of the playoff chase and another well out of contention. The Rays currently occupy the 3rd and final Wild Card spot while the Tigers own the fourth worst record in MLB. In tonight's series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to lefty Jeffrey Springs (3-3, 2.70 ERA) and Detroit counters with righty Drew Hutchinson (1-4, 4.53 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -155 road favorite and the Tigers a +140 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with the Rays, steaming Tampa Bay up from -150 to -175. Non-division road favorites are 178-108 (62%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last year against teams who did not are 398-229 (64%). Tampa Bay has value as a favorite in a low total game (8). The Rays are 39-28 as a favorite. The Tigers are 33-53 as a dog. Tampa Bay will lean on their bats, hitting .238 compared to .226 for Detroit. 

 

8:05 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (53-51) at Texas Rangers (46-58)

These AL foes are trending in opposite directions. The White Sox are 7-3 in their last ten games and now just sit 2 games out of first place in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 5-9 since the All Star Break and just got swept at home by the Orioles. In tonight's series opener, Chicago starts veteran righty Johnny Cueto (4-4, 2.86 ERA) and Texas counters with lefty Cole Ragans (no record), who will be making his MLB debut. This line opened with the White Sox listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Rangers a +105 home dog. Sharps have pounced on Chicago at the short chalk price, steaming the White Sox up from -115 to -125. Non-division road favorites are 178-108 (62%) this season. The White Sox have a distinct advantage at the plate, hitting .259 compared to .239 for Texas. Cueto has a 2.12 ERA in five July starts.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

The Greg Peterson Experience: In NBA and college hoops, place more value on teams that emphasize low post defense. It travels much better than shooting. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Jason Weingarten: Rams +6 vs. Raiders. View more picks

Josh Appelbaum: Army/Navy Under 33 (-110). View more picks

 

 

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