Thursday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to check out the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I will also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and then I'll be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...


1:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (41-49) at Miami Marlins (43-48)

Both of these Interleague foes are in shouting distance of the final Wild Card spot, with the Rangers trailing by 7.5-games in the American League and the Marlins trailing by 5.5-games in the National League. In this early afternoon series opener, Texas hands the ball to righty Jon Gray (6-4, 3.71 ERA) and Miami counters with fellow righty Pablo Lopez (6-4, 2.86 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a short -125 home favorite and the Rangers a +115 road dog. The public is happy to lay the chalk with the Fish at home, however we've seen Miami fall from -125 to -115. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Rangers, with pros dropping Texas from +115 to +105. Interleague dogs are 61-67 this season, producing just a 48% win rate but roughly +16 units won and a 13% ROI due to the plus money payouts. The Rangers are 6-1 in Gray's last seven starts. 


3:37 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (37-55) at Oakland Athletics (32-61)

This is Game 1 of a doubleheader between two of the three worst teams in the American League. In this afternoon's series opener, Detroit taps lefty Tarik Skubal (6-8, 4.11 ERA) and Oakland starts fellow southpaw Zach Logue (3-4, 5.16 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +115 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with Detroit, steaming the Tigers up from -125 to -145. Non-division road favorite are 162-99 (62%) this season. Detroit also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). We could be looking a low scoring game here, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120. This signals under liability and a possible fall down from 7.5 to 7. These are two of the top "under" teams in MLB, with Detroit 54-33-5 to the under and Oakland 50-36-6 to the under. 


10:09 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (48-43) at Los Angeles Dodgers (60-30)

The Giants are in the thick of the playoff race, trailing the second Wild Card spot in the National League by just a half game. Meanwhile, the Dodgers sit comfortably in first place in the NL West boasting the second best record in MLB. In tonight's NL West series opener, San Francisco starts lefty Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.66 ERA) and Los Angeles turns to righty Mitch White (1-2, 4.20 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -155 home favorite and the Giants a +140 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Dodgers at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Los Angeles dip slightly from -155 to -150. This signals some smart money grabbing the Giants at a plus-money payout (+140 to +135). San Francisco has value as a contrarian road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. The Giants lead the seasons series 3-2. Pros have also leaned under, as the total sits at 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. The Dodgers are 47-35-8 to the under this season. The under is 3-1-1 in five head-to-head matchups. 

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