Thursday MLB Sharp Report

marlins

For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (39-41) at New York Mets (51-31)

The Marlins just saw their six-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday, losing to the Angels 5-2 as +140 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Mets have won four of their last six games and just beat the Reds 8-3, cashing as -175 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Miami starts lefty Daniel Castano (1-1, 2.42 ERA) and New York sends out righty Trevor Williams (1-5, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -170 home favorite and the Marlins a +145 road dog. Sharps think the line is a bit high and have grabbed Miami at a juicy plus money payout, dropping the Fish from +145 to +135. The Marlins have value as a divisional dog in a high total game (9).  The Marlins have won Castano's last three starts. The Mets have lost William's last five starts. 

 

7:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (44-40) at Atlanta Braves (49-34)

The Braves have gone a perfect 3-0 so far in this series, outscoring the Cardinals 16-4 overall. Atlanta is coming off a 3-0 win on Wednesday, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, St. Louis starts lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-1, 5.66 ERA) and Atlanta counters with righty Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -190 home favorite and the Cardinals a +175 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and are backing the Braves to finish off the sweep, steaming Atlanta up from -190 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 123-49 (72%) this season. The Braves are 41-19 as a favorite, 27-17 at home and 20-8 against lefties. The Cardinals are 15-25 as a dog, 20-24 on the road and 35-32 against righties. 

9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (41-39) at San Diego Padres (47-36)

The Giants snapped a six-game losing streak last night, coming from behind to beat the Diamondbacks 7-5 as -130 home favorites. On the flip side, the Padres were off yesterday and are just 2-8 over their last 10 games. In tonight's series opener, San Francisco taps righty Logan Webb (7-3, 3.13 ERA) and San Diego trots out fellow righty Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -125 home favorite and the Giants a +115 road dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with the Padres, driving San Diego upwards of -135 across the market. Favorites coming off a day off, like the Padres, facing teams who played the previous day are 254-160 (61%) since 2018. The Padres also have value as a favorite in a low total game (6.5). San Diego is 4-2 against the Giants this season.

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