For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for a trio of MLB games tonight...
7:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (39-41) at New York Mets (51-31)
The Marlins just saw their six-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday, losing to the Angels 5-2 as +140 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Mets have won four of their last six games and just beat the Reds 8-3, cashing as -175 road favorites. In tonight's series opener, Miami starts lefty Daniel Castano (1-1, 2.42 ERA) and New York sends out righty Trevor Williams (1-5, 4.34 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -170 home favorite and the Marlins a +145 road dog. Sharps think the line is a bit high and have grabbed Miami at a juicy plus money payout, dropping the Fish from +145 to +135. The Marlins have value as a divisional dog in a high total game (9). The Marlins have won Castano's last three starts. The Mets have lost William's last five starts.
7:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (44-40) at Atlanta Braves (49-34)
The Braves have gone a perfect 3-0 so far in this series, outscoring the Cardinals 16-4 overall. Atlanta is coming off a 3-0 win on Wednesday, cashing as -175 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, St. Louis starts lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-1, 5.66 ERA) and Atlanta counters with righty Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.87 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -190 home favorite and the Cardinals a +175 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and are backing the Braves to finish off the sweep, steaming Atlanta up from -190 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 123-49 (72%) this season. The Braves are 41-19 as a favorite, 27-17 at home and 20-8 against lefties. The Cardinals are 15-25 as a dog, 20-24 on the road and 35-32 against righties.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (41-39) at San Diego Padres (47-36)
The Giants snapped a six-game losing streak last night, coming from behind to beat the Diamondbacks 7-5 as -130 home favorites. On the flip side, the Padres were off yesterday and are just 2-8 over their last 10 games. In tonight's series opener, San Francisco taps righty Logan Webb (7-3, 3.13 ERA) and San Diego trots out fellow righty Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -125 home favorite and the Giants a +115 road dog. Pros have laid the short chalk with the Padres, driving San Diego upwards of -135 across the market. Favorites coming off a day off, like the Padres, facing teams who played the previous day are 254-160 (61%) since 2018. The Padres also have value as a favorite in a low total game (6.5). San Diego is 4-2 against the Giants this season.