Thursday MLB Sharp Report

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For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. I will be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (50-47) at Boston Red Sox (49-50)

The Guardians have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series. Cleveland is coming off a 7-6 win Wednesday night, cashing as +120 road dogs. The ice-cold Red Sox are now 1-5 since the All Star Break and 4-15 over their last 19 games. In tonight's series finale, the Guardians send out righty Triston McKenzie (7-6, 3.11 ERA) and the Red Sox reply with fellow righty Kutter Crawford (2-3, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a slight -110 road favorite and Boston a +100 home dog. Pros are laying the chalk and once again fading the Sox, moving the Guardians up from -110 to -115. Non-division road favorites are 169-105 (62%) this season. Cleveland is 27-15 as a favorite. Boston is 19-28 as a dog. The Guardians hold an edge in overall pitching, sporting a 3.88 ERA compared to 4.31 for the Red Sox. McKenzie has a sparkling 0.34 ERA in four July starts (4-0). 

 

8:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (54-45) at Houston Astros (64-35)

These are the top two teams in the AL West, with the Astros leading the Mariners by 10-games. The Mariners are an incredible 20-4 over their last 24 games and just swept the Rangers at home. Meanwhile, the first place Astros just got swept on the road at Oakland. In tonight's series opener, the Mariners hand the ball to righty Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.77 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow righty Jose Urquidy (9-4, 3.93 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -150 home favorite and Seattle a +135 road dog. Sharps have pounced at the opportunity to grab the red-hot Mariners at plus money, dropping Seattle from +135 to +120. The Mariners have value as a divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Seattle is 9-2 in Gilbert's last 11 starts. 

 

9:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (40-57) at San Francisco Giants (48-50)

These NL non-division foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Cubs are 5-0 since the All Star Break while the slumping Giants are 0-7. In tonight's series opener, Chicago starts lefty Justin Steele (4-6, 4.02 ERA) and San Francisco taps fellow southpaw Alex Wood (6-8, 4.21 ERA).This line opened with the Giants listed as a -130 home favorite and the Cubs a +120 road dog. Sharps are buying low on San Francisco, steaming the Giants up from -130 to -140. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season are 191-106 (64%). San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game. The Cubs are 28-39 as a dog, 11-16 against lefties and 20-25 on the road. The Giants are 38-31 as a favorite, 26-22 at home and 19-14 against lefties. Wood has a 1.13 ERA in four July starts. 

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