Thursday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and then I'll be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

1:15 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (51-68) at St. Louis Cardinals (65-51)

The Cardinals have won the first two games of this NL non-division series, taking the opener 5-4 as -230 home favorite and then winning again Wednesday night 5-1 as -200 home favorites. St. Louis is now 12-3 over their last 15 games while the Rockies have lost four straight. In this early afternoon series finale, Colorado taps righty Antonio Senzatela (3-6, 4.67 ERA) and St. Louis starts veteran righty Adam Wainwright (8-8, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -200 home favorite and the Rockies a +185 road dog. Pros are banking on St. Louis to complete the sweep, steaming the Cardinals up from -200 to -215. Home favorites -200 or more are 201-81 (71%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 447-251 (64%). St. Louis also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Cardinals are 42-18 as a favorite, 39-21 at home and 48-42 against righties. Colorado is 35-58 as a dog, 18-38 on the road and 30-41 against righties. 

 

2:05 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (43-75) at Texas Rangers (52-65)

The Athletics have taken the first two games of this AL West series, winning the opener 5-1 as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as +150 road dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, Oakland hands the ball to lefty Zach Logue (3-6, 5.49 ERA) and Texas counters with righty Dane Dunning (2-6, 4.12 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -175 home favorite and the Athletics a +150 road dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk and have gotten down on Texas to avoid the sweep, steaming the Rangers up from -175 to -185. Texas leads the season series 9-7. The Rangers are 20-17 against lefties this season. The Athletics are just 31-52 against righties. Texas holds an edge at the plate, hitting .241 compared to .215 for Oakland. The Rangers are 3-0 in Dunning's last three starts. Dunning has a 2.38 ERA in two August starts. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop down to 8. 

 

3:05 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (49-67) at Baltimore Orioles (61-56)

This Interleague matchup is a makeup game from June 8. The Cubs just took two of three on the road at the Nats. Meanwhile, the Orioles just took two of three on the road at the Blue Jays. Baltimore is fighting for a playoff spot and only trails 1.5 games in the Wild Card standings. This afternoon the Cubs send righty Adrian Sampson (0-3, 3.88 ERA) to the bump to face Orioles righty Spenser Watkins (4-2, 4.23 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -140 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the Orioles, steaming Baltimore up from -140 to -155. The Orioles have value as an Intlerleague favorite with a line move in their favor. Baltimore has the more rested bullpen, pitching 8.1 innings the last three games compared to 12 innings for Chicago. The Orioles are 10-4 as a favorite and 33-21 at home. Chicago is 32-45 as a dog and 25-33 on the road. Baltimore leads the season series 3-0. The total opened at 9 and has fallen to 8.5, signaling some respected money hitting the under. 

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