Thursday MLB Sharp Report

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For an in depth breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving sharp action today...

 

1:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (58-52) at Detroit Tigers (43-69)

The Guardians have taken the first two games of this AL Central series, winning the opener 5-2 as -200 road favorites and then winning again on Tuesday 3-2 as -175 road favorites. Cleveland has now won four straight games to take sole possession of first place in the division. In this afternoon's series finale, the Guardians turn to righty Zach Plesac (2-10, 4.49 ERA) and the Tigers send out fellow righty Garrett Hill (2-3, 5.12 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -160 road favorite and Detroit a +145 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on Cleveland to complete the sweep, steaming the Guardians up from -160 to -170. Road favorites are 367-245 (60%) this season. Cleveland is 31-17 as a favorite. Detroit is 34-58 as a dog. The Guardians hold a big edge at the plate, hitting .252 compared to .226 for the Tigers. We could be looking at a lower scoring game here, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. 

 

3:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (61-49) at Colorado Rockies (49-64)

After getting rolled by Colorado 16-5 in the series opener, St. Louis bounced back with a 9-5 win on Wednesday, cashing as -155 road favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Dakota Hudson (6-6, 4.20 ERA) and the Rockies counter with fellow righty German Marquez (6-9, 5.18 ERA). This line opened St. Louis listed as a -135 road favorite and Colorado a +120 home dog. Sharps have grabbed the plus money with the home dog, dropping the Rockies from +120 to +110. Colorado has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (12). The Rockies are 31-28 at home. The Cardinals are 26-29 on the road. Colorado has the edge at the plate, hitting .264 compared to .251 for St. Louis. The total at Coors Field is 12 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 11.5. 

 

3:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (45-66) at Arizona Diamondbacks (50-60)

After dropping the first two games of this NL non-division series, the Pirates bounced back with a 6-4 win yesterday, cashing as 130 road dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, Pittsburgh taps righty JT Brubaker (2-10, 4.49 ERA) and Arizona trots out fellow righty Merrill Kelly (10-5, 2.86 ERA). This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -170 home favorite and the Pirates a +155 road dog. Sharps see a big advantage of the mound for Arizona and have steamed the Snakes up from -170 to -180. The Diamondbacks have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8). Arizona is 15-12 as a favorite and 31-29 at home. Pittsburgh is 34-59 as a dog and 21-37 on the road. The Pirates are 0-5 in Brubaker's last five starts. Kelly has posted a 1.31 ERA over his last seven starts. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 7.5. 

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