Thursday MLB Sharp Report

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For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and then I'll be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB matchups receiving sharp action today...

 

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (53-37) at Washington Nationals (30-60)

The Braves are 9-4 over their last 13 games but just dropped two of three at home to the Mets. Meanwhile, the free-falling Nats just got swept at home by the Mariners to fall to 1-12 over their last 13 games. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta starts righty Kyle Wright (10-4, 2.97 ERA) and Washington turns to veteran righty Anibal Sanchez (no record), who is making his first appearance in the big leagues since 2020. This line opened with the Braves listed as a hefty -205 road favorite and the Nats a +185 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed the Braves up from -205 to -215. Road favorites are 287-190 (60%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who missed the playoffs are 338-186 (65%). Both teams are hitting .249. The difference comes on the mound, where Atlanta has a team ERA of 3.54 compared to 5.15 for Washington. The Braves lead the season series with the Nats 7-2. The total is this game is 9.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 9. 

 

7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (57-30) at St. Louis Cardinals (48-43)

These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Cardinals taking the opener 7-6 as 140 home dogs and then the Dodgers earning a 7-6 come-from-behind win on Wednesday at -160 road favorites. In tonight's rubber match, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (9-1, 3.15 ERA) and St. Louis counters with righty Dakota Hudson (6-5, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -145 road favorite and the Cardinals a +130 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -145 to -155. Non-division road favorites are 154-97 (61%) this season. The Dodgers are 56-29 as a favorite, 27-17 on the road and 40-19 against righties. Los Angeles is 9-1 in Anderson's last ten starts. On the flip side, Hudson has lost his last two starts and posted a 5.40 ERA in July. 

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