Thursday MLB Sharp Report


For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and then I'll be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a pair of MLB matchups receiving sharp action today...


7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (53-37) at Washington Nationals (30-60)

The Braves are 9-4 over their last 13 games but just dropped two of three at home to the Mets. Meanwhile, the free-falling Nats just got swept at home by the Mariners to fall to 1-12 over their last 13 games. In tonight's series opener, Atlanta starts righty Kyle Wright (10-4, 2.97 ERA) and Washington turns to veteran righty Anibal Sanchez (no record), who is making his first appearance in the big leagues since 2020. This line opened with the Braves listed as a hefty -205 road favorite and the Nats a +185 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive price and have steamed the Braves up from -205 to -215. Road favorites are 287-190 (60%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who missed the playoffs are 338-186 (65%). Both teams are hitting .249. The difference comes on the mound, where Atlanta has a team ERA of 3.54 compared to 5.15 for Washington. The Braves lead the season series with the Nats 7-2. The total is this game is 9.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling some under liability and a possible fall down to 9. 


7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (57-30) at St. Louis Cardinals (48-43)

These non-division foes have split the first two games of the series, with the Cardinals taking the opener 7-6 as 140 home dogs and then the Dodgers earning a 7-6 come-from-behind win on Wednesday at -160 road favorites. In tonight's rubber match, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (9-1, 3.15 ERA) and St. Louis counters with righty Dakota Hudson (6-5, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -145 road favorite and the Cardinals a +130 home dog. Pros have laid the chalk with Los Angeles, steaming the Dodgers up from -145 to -155. Non-division road favorites are 154-97 (61%) this season. The Dodgers are 56-29 as a favorite, 27-17 on the road and 40-19 against righties. Los Angeles is 9-1 in Anderson's last ten starts. On the flip side, Hudson has lost his last two starts and posted a 5.40 ERA in July. 

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