Thursday MLB Sharp Report


Today bettors have another loaded slate to choose from including 4 NHL playoff games and 10 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also check in with Danny Burke on Rush Hour at 6:15 p.m. ET tonight.

With the NBA taking a rare day off today, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for today's MLB slate...


1:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (3-21) at Milwaukee Brewers (17-8)

The Brewers are 2-0 so far this series, beating Cincinnati 6-3 as -230 home favorites in the opener and then crushing the Reds 18-4 yesterday as -310 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Hunter Greene (1-3, 6.00 ERA) while Milwaukee counters with fellow righty Adrian Houser (2-2, 2.53 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -200 home favorite and Cincinnati a +170 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're happy to fade the worst team in baseball and have steamed the Brewers up from -200 to -225 to complete the sweep. Home favorites -200 or more are 37-17 (69%) this season. Milwaukee also has value as a big favorite with a low total (7.5). The Reds are 2-14 against righties this season. The Brewers are 13-3 against righties. Cincinnati is 3-17 as a dog. Milwaukee is 15-7 as a favorite. Milwaukee is +36 in run differential. Cincinnati is -82. 


6:45 p.m. ET: New York Mets (18-9) at Philadelphia Phillies (11-14)

Both of these NL East rivals are looking to bounce back from losses. The Mets just got crushed by the Braves 9-2, losing outright as -132 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Phillies just lost two straight against the lowly Rangers, most recently falling 2-1 as -200 home favorites. In tonight's series opener, New York taps righty Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Philadelphia sends out fellow righty Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -140 home favorite and the Mets a +120 road dog. The public is happy to grab the plus money with trendy dog New York. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further to Philadelphia (-130 to -145), signaling pro money backing the Phillies at home. Favorites are 230-141 (62%) this season. Favorites off a loss are 95-52 (65%). 


9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (15-10) at Seattle Mariners (12-13)

These non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Rays just swept the Athletics while the Mariners just got swept by the Astros. In tonight's series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to lefty Shane McClanahan (1-2, 3.00 ERA) while Seattle sends out fellow southpaw Robbie Ray (2-2, 4.15 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a short -120 road favorite and the Mariners a +105 home dog. The public is split and doesn't know who to back, yet we've the Rays tick up from -120 to -130. This signals wiseguy money laying the short chalk with Tampa Bay. Non-division road favorites are 46-17 (73%) this season. The Rays are 13-8 as a favorite. The Mariners are 5-11 as a dog. Tampa Bay is 4-1 against lefties. Seattle is 1-4 against lefties. We could also be looking at a low scoring game here. The total opened at 7 and smart under money has dropped the line down to 6.5. 

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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