Thursday MLB Sharp Report (8-26)

August 26, 2021 01:09 AM

Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu featuring 12 MLB games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today.

7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (82-44) at New York Mets (61-65)

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 8-0 as + 115 road dogs and winning again yesterday 3-2 as + 100 road dogs. The Giants have now won four straight while the free-falling Mets fall to just 2-10 over their last 12 games. In tonight's series finale, San Francisco hands the ball to lefty Alex Wood (10-4, 4.11 ERA) and New York counters with righty Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.82 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -118 road favorite and the Mets a + 113 home dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're fading the reeling Mets and backing the best team in baseball on a short chalk price, driving the Giants up from -118 to -125. The Giants are 52-25 as a favorite this season. The Mets are 20-33 as a dog. San Francisco is also 59-28 against righties while New York is just 14-25 against lefties. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The forecast calls for ideal hitting weather: high 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center. The home plate umpire Adrian Johnson has also historically favored overs (55%). 

9:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (74-52) at Oakland Athletics (70-57)

This non-division showdown is pivotal for both teams and their playoff aspirations. The Yankees currently occupy the first Wild Card spot in the AL while the Athletics are only 1.5-games back of the Red Sox for the second spot. In tonight's series opener, the Yankees send out righty Jameson Taillon (8-4, 3.94 ERA) and the Athletics tap fellow righty James Kaprielian (7-4, 3.25 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and Oakland a + 115 home dog. The public is all over the red-hot Yankees, who are riding an 11-game win streak. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen New York fall from -125 to -110. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Athletics as a short home dog (+ 115 to + 105). Non-division home teams receiving steam 10-cents or more are 226-147 (60.6%) this season. Oakland also has value as a contrarian home dog with a high total. Sharps are also eyeing the over in this one. The total opened at 8.5 and respected money has pushed it up to 9. The forecast calls for high 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to dead center. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (56-70) at Seattle Mariners (69-58)

These non-division foes are at opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. The Royals are out of contention and own the fourth-worst record in the American League. Meanwhile, the Mariners are just 2.5-games back of the second Wild Card spot. In tonight's series opener, Kansas City hands the ball to righty Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA) and Seattle starts lefty Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a -146 home favorite and the Royals a + 133 road dog. Sharps seem to think this line is a bit low and have gotten down hard on Seattle, steaming the Mariners up from -146 to -168. Non-division home favorites are 411-259 (61.3%) this season. If they're in the "sweet spot" range of -150 to -175, they improve to 88-50 (63.8%). This is also a "schedule spot" advantage for Seattle, who was off yesterday while the Royals played the Astros. Rested favorites coming off a day off against teams on a back-to-back are 58-36 (61.7%). The Royals are 24-39 on the road. The Mariners are 37-25 at home. Wiseguys are also leaning under here. The total isd 8.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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