Thursday MLB Sharp Report (8-19)

August 19, 2021 12:33 AM

Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu featuring 10 MLB games and one NFL Preseason game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3-5 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Jonathan Von Tobel at 7 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today.

1:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (61-61) at Detroit Tigers (58-64)

The Angels have won the first two games of this series, taking the opener 8-2 as + 130 road dogs and then winning again last night 3-1 as -130 road favorites behind a stellar two-way performance by Shohei Ohtani, who is now -1200 to win the AL MVP at BetMGM (92.3% implied probability). In tonight's rematch, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12 ERA) and Detroit counters with righty Matt Manning (3-5, 6.10 ERA), who was selected 9th overall by the Tigers in 2016. This line opened with the Angels listed as a -125 road favorite and the Tigers a + 115 home dog. The public is riding the Angels to complete the sweep, yet we've seen Los Angeles fall from -125 to -110. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Tigers (+ 115 to + 110). Essentially, the game is moving toward a pick'em. Home teams receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 214-129 (62.4%) this season. Detroit also has value as a short dog with a high total. Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. 

2:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (68-53) at Chicago White Sox (71-50)

The White Sox have dominated the Athletics so far this series, going a perfect 3-0 and outscoring Oakland 17-4 along the way. In this afternoon's series finale, the Athletics start lefty Cole Irvin (8-11, 3.52 ERA) and the White Sox trot out righty Dylan Cease (9-6, 4.04 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -135 home favorite and the Athletics a + 125 road dog. Wiseguys are riding the hot hand and backing the White Sox to complete the sweep, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -160. Non-division home favorites are 381-239 (61.5%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites between -150 and -175 are 86-45 (65.5%). Chicago is 37-19 (66.1%) as a home favorite. The White Sox have also mashed lefties this year, going 21-12. Chicago is 61-33 as a favorite. Oakland is 15-20 as a dog. The Southsiders will once again lean on their offense. Chicago is hitting .251, which ranks 6th-best in MLB. Oakland is hitting .237, which ranks 21st. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible drop to 8.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from left center. The under is 2-0-1 this series. 

7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (74-47) at St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)

The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 2-0 as -160 road favorites and winning again on Wednesday 6-4 as -125 road favorites. Milwaukee has now won four straight and eight of their last nine. The Brewers are tied with the Rays for the 3rd-best record in baseball, trailing only the Giants and Dodgers. Milwaukee is + 350 to win the National League and + 900 to win the World Series. In tonight's series finale, the Brewers send out ace righty Brandon Woodruff (7-6, 2.18 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with veteran lefty Jon Lester (4-6, 5.32 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a hefty -177 road favorite and St. Louis a + 162 home dog. Wiseguys aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better, hotter team with the glaring starting pitching advantage, steaming Milwaukee up from -177 to -200. Teams coming off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 212-139 (60.4%) this season. Big favorites -200 or more coming off a win are 115-39 (74.7%), Milwaukee is 56-36 as a favorite. St. Louis is 24-35 as a dog. The Brewers are + 117 in run differential. The Cardinals are -25. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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