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Thursday MLB Sharp Report (8-12)

August 12, 2021 01:05 AM

Today we have a loaded Thursday betting menu, featuring 14-MLB games and 2 NFL Preseason games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 5 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for a trio of MLB games today...

12:35 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (57-56) at Pittsburgh Pirates (41-73)

The Cardinals are 2-0 against the Pirates so far this series, outscoring Pittsburgh 8-1 along the way. St. Louis won the opener 4-1 as -130 road favorites and won again on Wednesday 4-0 as -165 road favorites. St. Louis is still in the hunt, trailing the second Wild Card spot by 7.5-games. Meanwhile, the lowly Pirates have now lost seven straight and own the 4th-worst record in MLB. In this early afternoon series finale, St. Louis gives the ball to lefty Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 3.12 ERA) and Pittsburgh starts righty JT Brubaker (4-11, 4.95 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a -125 road favorite and the Pirates a + 115 home dog. Pros and Joes are happy to back the desperate Cardinals, steaming St. Louis up from -125 to -130. Short road favorites -150 or less coming off a win are 127-89 (58.8%) this season, winning roughly + 13 units. St. Louis is 34-22 as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 36-69 as a dog. The Pirates have struggled against lefties this season, going 7-22. The Cardinals are 8-3 against the Pirates this season. Sharps seem to be leaning on another lower-scoring game. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible drop down to 9. 

5:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (61-54) at Atlanta Braves (59-55)

The Braves have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 3-2 as -115 home favorites and winning again last night 8-6 as -125 home favorites. Red-hot Atlanta has now won three straight and seven of their last eight. The Braves are now tied for first place in the NL East with the Phillies. In this early evening series finale, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Vladimir Gutierrez (7-3, 4.15 ERA) and Atlanta counters with lefty Kyle Muller (2-3, 2.88 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -135 home favorite and the Reds a + 125 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched teams and says give me the plus money with the Reds to avoid the sweep. But wiseguys are backing the surging Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -135 to -145. Non-division home favorites are 371-230 (61.7%) this season, winning roughly + 18 units. Home favorites off a win are 390-255 (60.5%). Atlanta is 39-35 as a favorite. The Reds are 23-28 as a dog. Atlanta is + 68 in run differential. Cincinnati is + 13. The total opened at a high 10.5 and wiseguys seem to be leaning under. The total is now 10.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible drop to 10. 

9:45 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (51-63) at San Francisco Giants (73-41)

These NL West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Rockies are 22-games out of first place in the division and 14-games out of second Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Giants have the best record in baseball. San Francisco is + 400 to win the NL and + 900 to win the World Series. In tonight's series opener, Colorado starts righty German Marquez (10-8, 3.42 ERA) and San Francisco taps fellow righty Logan Webb (5-3, 3.19 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -154 home favorite and the Rockies a + 144 road dog. Respected money is riding the powerhouse Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -154 to -170. Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 196-133 (59.6%) this season. Home favorites are 670-433 (60.7%). San Francisco also has value as a big favorite with a low total (7.5). The fewer expected runs scored, the more likely they'll come from the "better" team. The Giants are 44-22 as favorites, including 29-10 as home favorites (74.4%). The Rockies are 31-55 as dogs. San Francisco is 37-17 at home this season. Colorado is an abysmal 13-42 on the road. The Giants are 6-3 against the Rockies this season. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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