Thursday MLB Sharp Report (7-22)

July 22, 2021 12:43 AM

Today, bettors have slim pickings with just 9 MLB games on tap. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Brady Kannon and Michael Lombardi at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three MLB games today.

1:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (35-61) at Detroit Tigers (46-51)

These two teams are trending in completely opposite directions since the All-Star Break. The Rangers have lost six straight while the Tigers have won six straight. Detroit is 3-0 against the Rangers this series, outscoring Texas by a combined score of 22-3. In this afternoon's series finale, Texas hands the ball to righty Mike Foltynewicz (2-9, 5.91 ERA) and Detroit counters with lefty Tyler Alexander (1-1, 4.40 ERA). This line opened with the Tigers listed as a short -116 home favorite and the Rangers a + 106 road dog. Sharps aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They have pounced on the streaking Tigers to complete the four-game sweep, steaming Detroit up from -116 to -131. The Tigers have value as a non-division home favorite (319-195, 62% this season). Teams receiving 15-cents of steam or more coming off a win are 118-76 (61%) this season. Detroit is 7-4 as a favorite this season and 27-22 at home. The Rangers are 28-50 as a dog and 13-36 on the road. Pros have also targeted the under here. After opening at 9.5, the total has fallen to 9. 

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (46-48) at Philadelphia Phillies (47-47)

This divisional showdown is pivotal for both teams. The Phillies are just 3.5-games back of the first place Mets. The Braves are just 4.5-games back. In tonight's series opener, the Braves start veteran righty Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.69 ERA) and the Phillies send out lefty Matt Moore (0-1, 5.25 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short -130 road favorite and Philadelphia a + 120 home dog. Pros see a big starting pitching advantage with Morton over Moore and have gotten down hard on the Braves, driving Atlanta up from -130 close to -140. Favorites have dominated in MLB since June 1st, going 387-245 (61%). There also appear to be some under liability. The total is 9 with some books juicing the under up to -115. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from left center. 

10:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (55-42) at Seattle Mariners (51-45)

This AL West showdown features a pair of rivals separated by just 3.5 games in the standings, both of whom are above .500 and within striking distance of the division leading Astros. In tonight's series opener, the Athletics give the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28 ERA) and the Mariners start righty Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -126 road favorite and Seattle a + 116 home dog. Respected money seems to be leaning Athletics as we've seen the A's rise slightly from -126 to -134. Oakland has a rest advantage in this one. The A's are coming off a day off while Seattle played yesterday in Colorado. Rested favorites against teams playing a back-to-back are 44-28 (61%) this season. Oakland is also riding a two-game win streak. Short road favorites -150 or less coming off a win are 105-74 (59%). We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall to 7.5. The under is 27-20-2 (57%) at T-Mobile Stadium this year. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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