Thursday MLB Sharp Report (6-11)

Today, bettors have a loaded slate of sweats, including 10 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three MLB games tonight.

7:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (25-37) at Miami Marlins (26-35)

These teams have exchanged wins in the first two games of the series, with the Marlins winning the opener 6-2 as -180 home favorites and the Rockies winning on Wednesday 4-3 as + 105 road dogs. In tonight's rubber match, the Rockies start righty Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-3, 4.84 ERA) and the Marlins give the ball to lefty Trevor Rogers (6-3, 1.97 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a hefty -190 home favorite and the Rockies a + 170 road dog. Pros see a big starting pitching advantage for the Fish and have promptly steamed Miami from -190 to -200. Home teams in non-division games receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 114-67 (63%) this season. Big home favorites -200 or more are 50-17 (75%). The Fish also have value as a heavy favorite in a game with a super low total. Pros are also targeting this under. The total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible drop to 7. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Colorado 32-28-2 and Miami 32-25-4. The Rockies are the worst road team in MLB this season, going 5-23. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (31-28) at Chicago White Sox (37-24)

These playoff hopefuls have split the first two games of the series. The White Sox won the opener 6-1 as -140 home favorites and the Jays bounced back with a 6-2 win yesterday as + 140 road dogs. In tonight's rubber match, Toronto gives the ball to lefty ace Hyun Jin Ryu (5-3, 3.23 ERA) and the White Sox tap fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.25 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a short -117 road favorite and Chicago a + 107 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen this line dip slightly from Toronto -117 to -113. This signals some wiseguy action grabbing the White Sox as a rare plus money home dog (+ 107 to + 103). Chicago has value as a home dog who made the playoffs last year (47% win rate, 6% ROI this season). The White Sox have also crushed lefties this season, going 14-4. The Jays are just 5-8 against lefties. Chicago is 24-11 at home, the most wins for any home team in MLB. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115. 

9:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (29-31) at Oakland Athletics (37-26)

These non-division American League opponents are trending in completely opposite directions. The Royals have lost five straight and just got swept by the Angels. Meanwhile, the Athletics are 6-1 over their last seven games andust swept a short two-game series at home against the Diamondbacks. In tonight's series opener, the Royals send out lefty Mike Minor (4-3, 4.84 ERA) and the Athletics counter with righty Frankie Montas (6-5, 4.52 ERA). This line opened with Oakland listed as a -145 home favorite and Kansas City a + 130 road dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one, as we've seen respected money lay the chalk with the Athletics (-145 to -155). Oakland has value as a "Sweet Spot" non-division home favorite -150 to -175. These teams are 38-18 (68%) this season. The A's also have value as a big favorite with a low total (8). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Oakland mashes lefties (16-8 this season). The A's are + 13 in run differential. The Royals are -23. Oakland is 26-14 as a favorite. Kansas City is 14-21 as a dog. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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