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Thursday MLB Sharp Report (5-6)

May 6, 2021 03:04 AM

Today we have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including 10 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 6 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several MLB games today.

1:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (17-14) at Philadelphia Phillies (16-15)

The Phillies are a perfect 3-0 against the Brewers so far this series and go for the clean sweep in tonight's finale. The Brewers hand the ball to ace Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 1.80 ERA) and the Phillies send out veteran righty Zack Wheeler (2-2, 3.49 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Phillies a + 105 home dog. Sharps look to be siding with the Brewers to avoid the sweep as we've seen Milwaukee inch up from -115 to -120. The Brewers have value as a favorite in a super low total game (7). Historically, low totals (8 or less) have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team.

1:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets (12-13) at St. Louis Cardinals (18-13)

The Cardinals have taken two of the three games so far in this four-game series. St. Louis won the opener 6-5 and then the teams split yesterday's doubleheader (STL 4-1, NYM 7-2). In tonight's series finale, the Mets start righty Taijuan Walker (1-1, 3.00 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with fellow righty John Gant (2-2, 2.16 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as short -115 road favorites and the Cardinals a + 105 home dog. Respected money has sided with the Mets, driving this line from New York -115 to -120. The Mets have value as a non-division favorite with a line move in their favor and a favorite with a low total (8). The Mets will look to lean on their bats in this one. New York is hitting .240, which ranks 10th-best in MLB. The Cardinals are hitting .229, which ranks 18th.

4:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (14-16) at Washington Nationals (12-14)

The Braves have won the first two games of this NL East series, winning 6-1 as -130 favorites in the opener and 5-3 as -135 favorites on Wednesday night. In this afternoon's series finale, the Braves hand the ball to lefty Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA) and the Nats trot out veteran southpaw Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Nats listed as short -110 home favorites and the Braves an even money (+ 100) dog. Wiseguys seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix" and are backing the Braves to complete the sweep, which has flipped Atlanta from a slight dog to a slight favorite (+ 100 to -108). Pros also seem to be eyeing a lower-scoring game. The total is 9.5 with heavy under juice (-115), signaling under liability and a possible drop to 9. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the udder is 125-103 (55%) this season. The Nats have been a big under team this season (16-9-1). The Braves have been more of an over team (17-12-1). The forecast calls for low 60s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from left-center. 

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