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Thursday MLB Sharp Report (4-22)

April 22, 2021 12:29 AM

Today, we have a loaded betting menu, including 8 MLB games, 6 NBA games and 10 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke tonight at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several MLB games today.

12:35 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (8-10) at Cincinnati Reds (9-8)

The Diamondbacks have come up huge for dog bettors in this series, winning the first two games 5-4 as + 136 dogs and 8-5 as + 157 dogs. In today's series finale, Arizona sends righty Taylor Widener (1-0, 1.59 ERA) to the hill while Cincinnati counters with veteran Jeff Hoffman (2-1, 2.93 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as -145 home favorites. The public says there's no way the Reds get swept at home by the sub .500 Snakes and they're rushing to the window to lay the chalk with Cincinnati. However, despite this lopsided support, we've actually seen the Reds fall from -145 to -135. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Snakes (+ 135 to + 130), with pros riding the hot hand and refusing to fall into the Gambler's Fallacy trap. Arizona has value as a dog off a win (9% ROI this season), a dog with a line move in their favor (5% ROI) and a road dog (14% ROI). The Snakes also match as a "Sweet Spot" dog, as dogs + 140 or less are 72-63 (53%) this season, good for a 15% ROI. Keep an eye on the total in this one. It's 8.5 and the forecast calls for 10 MPH winds blowing out to center field. The over is 2-0 this season. The Reds are 12-5 to the over this season. The Snakes are 9-9.

7:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (7-6) at Chicago Cubs (8-9)

The Cubs have upset the Mets in both games so far this series, winning 3-1 and 16-4 as + 115 dogs in both instances. Tonight, Chicago goes for the sweep. The Mets will start lefty Joey Lucchesi (0-1, 5.40 ERA) and the Cubs counter with righty Trevor Williams (2-1, 5.02 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite. Wiseguys seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," as we've seen the Mets fall from -130 to -125. This was caused by pro money backing the surging Cubs (+ 120 to + 115), who have now won three of their last four games after a lackluster 5-8 start. The Cubs have value as a dog off a win, a sweet spot dog + 140 or less and a home dog who made the playoffs the previous season. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 against left handed starting pitchers this season. The Cubs are also 6-5 at home while the Mets are 3-5 on the road. We could also be looking at a higher-scoring game in this one. The total is 9 with heavy -120 juice to the over. Both pitchers have high ERAs and the wind is expected to blow out to dead center at 10 MPH. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (9-7) at Houston Astros (7-10)

This is the first game of a four-game set between a pair of struggling AL West rivals. The Angels just dropped two of three at home to the Rangers while the Astros just lost a pair of games on the road at Colorado. Houston is now just 1-9 over their last ten games. Tonight, the Angels trot out veteran Alex Cobb (1-0, 4.63 ERA) and the Astros give the ball to young righty Cristian Javier (1-0, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. The Astros are mired in a prolonged losing skid and the Angels have a winning record, yet Houston opened as the favorite. The public is all over Mike Trout and the Angels getting plus money, yet we've actually seen this line move further to the Astros (-120 to -125). This signals a rare "Fade the Trendy Dog" play on Houston, with pros buying low on the Astros at home as a contrarian favorite. The total is 9. Both of these teams have been profitable to the over this season, going 9-7 apiece. 

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