Thursday MLB Sharp Report (4-15)

April 15, 2021 01:04 AM

Today, we have a loaded betting menu to choose from, including 12 MLB games, 4 NBA games and 9 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke tonight at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several MLB games today.

1:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (9-3) at Minnesota Twins (5-7)

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball. After starting the season 0-3, Boston has now won nine straight. The Red Sox have won the first three games of this four-game series, outscoring Minnesota 14-5 along the way. In this afternoon's series finale, the Red Sox start Garrett Richards (0-1, 10.29 ERA) while the Twins counter with Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.64 ERA). The Twins opened as hefty -155 home favorites. We've seen the Twins dip from -155 to -150. Some shops are closer to -145. This signals some sharp money backing red-hot Boston at plus money (+ 145 to + 135). The Red Sox have value as a dog off a win (20% ROI this season), a dog with a line move in their favor (17% ROI) and a road dog with a high total. The Red Sox' big advantage will likely come at the plate. Boston is hitting .277, with ranks 2nd in MLB. Boston is also 3rd in OPS.

2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (6-5) at Chicago White Sox (6-6)

The White Sox have taken two of the first three games in this AL Central series, outscoring the Indians 12-5. In last night's game Carlos Rodon threw a no-hitter for the White Sox, beating the Indians 8-0 and cashing as modest -110 home favorites. In today's series finale, the Indians give the ball to Aaron Civale (2-0, 2.45 ERA) while the White Sox send out veteran Lance Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -126 home favorite. Sharp action has gotten down on the White Sox to keep it rolling, which has pushed the line up to -135. The White Sox have value as a favorite with a low total (8). The fewer amount of expected runs scored means it's more likely they come from the "better" team. The Indians have been snake pit at the plate this season, hitting just .211 (5th-worst in MLB). Both teams have been profitable to the under this season, with Cleveland 8-3 and Chicago 7-5. Divisional unders are 55-45 (55%) on the season. 

BONUS NHL

7 p.m. ET: Nashville Predators (24-19-1) at Carolina Hurricanes (27-10-4)

The Predators have been one of the hottest teams in hockey in recent weeks. Since March 15 the Preds are 13-3. Now they face the best team in the Central Division. The Hurricanes are 63-1 in their last ten games and own the 5th-best record in the NHL. This line opened with Carolina listed as a -175 favorite. Respected money has backed the Hurricanes, pushing the line up to -185 or -190 depending on the shop. Carolina has value as a home favorite -150 or more off a loss (46-21, 69% this season), a home favorite -175 or more (87-31, 74%) and a rested favorite against a tired team. Carolina last played on Tuesday while the Canes last played on Monday. Carolina is also playing their fourth game in six games. The Canes are + 31 in goal differential. The Preds are -4. Carolina is 23-11 as a favorite this season. Nashville is 10-17 as a dog. 

7 p.m. ET: Florida Panthers (27-12-4) at Tampa Bay Lightning (28-12-2)

This grudge match features two of the best teams in the Central Division. The Lightning opened as -150 home favorites and sharps have rushed to the window to lay the chalk, driving Tampa Bay up to -160. Some books are closer to -165. The Lightning match several profitable betting systems this season: favorite off a loss (168-92, 65%), home favorite -150 or more (130-57, 70%) and favorite with a line move of 10-cents or more in their favor (108-60, 64%). Also, favorites of -150 or more in games with high totals (6 or more) are 94-40 (70%) this season. With more expected goals scared, it's more likely they come from the favored team. Tampa Bay is + 35 in goal differential. Florida is + 19. The Lightning are 15-4 at home this season, one of the best home teams in the NHL.

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