Thursday MLB Opening Day Sharp Report


Happy MLB Opening Day! Today we have 7 MLB games, 7 NBA games and 10 NHL games to choose from. For an extensive breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m ET, co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET and hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where respected money is flowing for several MLB Opening Day games...


2:20 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

This is the first game of the day and also the first game of the 2022 MLB season. The Brewers went 95-67 last season, winning the AL Central by five-games over the second place Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cubs finished 71-91, a whopping 24-games behind first place Milwaukee. In today's season opener, Milwaukee hands the ball to righty and defending Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (11-5, 2.43 ERA in 2021). The Cubs counter with veteran righty Kyle Hendricks (14-7, 4.77 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -150 road favorite and Chicago a +130 home dog. Pros have gotten down hard on the Brewers, steaming Milwaukee up from -150 to -190. Keep an eye on the total in this one (10). The weather calls for mid 40s with 15 MPH winds blowing out to center at Wrigley Field, which typically benefits the offense. The Brewers' win total is 90.5 at BetMGM while the Cubs sit at 74.5.


4:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

Both of these AL Central rivals finished well behind the first place White Sox in last year's division. The Guardians went 80-82 last season, trailing Chicago by 13-games. Similarly, the Royals went 74-88, finishing 19-games behind the White Sox. In this late afternoon opener, Cleveland starts ace righty Shane Bieber (7-4, 3.17 ERA) while the Royals trot out veteran righty Zack Greinke (11-6, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short -120 road favorite and Kansas City a +110 home dog. Pros seem to be leaning toward the Guardians as we've seen this line tick up closer to Cleveland -130. The total is 8 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a lower-scoring game. The Guardians have value as a favorite with a low total. The forecast calls for high 40s with 15-20 MPH winds blowing left to right at Kauffman Stadium. The Guardians' win total is 76.5. The Royals sit at 74.5. 


9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

This late night clash features a pair of NL West opponents looking to rebound from losing seasons. The Padres finished a disappointing 79-83 last season, 28-games behind first place San Francisco. The Diamondbacks were even worse, finishing 52-110 for the worst record in all of baseball. In tonight's opener, San Diego hands the ball to veteran righty Yu Darvish (8-11, 4.22 ERA) and Arizona counters with veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner (7-10, 4.67 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -150 road favorite and Arizona a +135 home dog. Thus line has crept up to Padres -160 at most shops, signaling respected money laying the wood with San Diego. The Padres' win total is 88.5 while the Snakes sit at 66.5. The total is 9. The Chase Field roof is expected to be open as the forecast calls for mid 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from center.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All



A Numbers Game: The Braves might be better than last season. Still value on them in the futures markets.

Follow The Money: When looking at totals the key stats to focus on are pace of play and number of plays, according to college football handicapper Paul Stone.

View tips for Pro subscribers


Matt Youmans: Arizona +13 vs Oregon

Josh Appelbaum: Browns +3 vs Chargers

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers



Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers