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Thursday MLB and NBA Sharp Report (6-17)

June 17, 2021 01:19 AM

Today bettors have another loaded slate, including 10 MLB games, 1 NBA playoff game and 1 NHL playoff game. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. I'll also be joining Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 7 p.m. ET to discuss tonight's late action. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three key games tonight...

7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (38-30) at New York Mets (35-25) 

The Mets are a perfect 3-0 this series against the Cubs and look to finish off the sweep tonight at Citi Field. The Cubs will start Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow veteran righty Marcus Stroman (6-4, 2.33 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -125 home favorite and the Cubs a + 115 road dog. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. Gambler's Fallacy says the Cubs are due for a win and can't possibly get swept in all four games. However, pros are backing the red-hot Mets as we've seen this line move from New York -125 to -135. Non-division home favorites like the Mets have gone 224-136 (62.2%) this season. New York also has value as a favorite with a low total (7.5). The Mets are 20-6 at home this season, the best home record of any team in MLB. The Cubs are just 14-20 on the road. New York is 24-13 as a favorite. Chicago is 13-18 as a dog. Sharps also seem to be leaning on the under, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115. Both teams have been profitable to the under this season (Cubs 37-27-4 and Mets 31-27-2). 

8:30 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Nets lead the series 3-2 and can punch their ticket to the Conference Finals with a victory. The Bucks have their backs against the wall and must win tonight in order to keep their season alive. Brooklyn is coming off a thrilling 114-108 victory in Game 5, winning outright as a 1-point home dog. This Game 6 line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 5-point home favorite. Some shops opened closer to Bucks -3.5. After watching Kevin Durant's otherworldly performance in Game 5, the public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the Nets. However, we've actually seen this line move to Milwaukee -5.5. This signals some sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on the contrarian home favorite with pros expecting a big bounce back spot from the Bucks at home. We've also seen some under money show up as this total has fallen from 220.5 to 220. Unders are 11-8 (58%) in Round Two. Historically, late series unders have been a smart bet in Game 6 and Game 7 as both teams are dealing with tired legs and the importance of the games and prospect of elimination leads to dialed in defenses. The under is 4-0-1 this series. Kyrie Irving remains out for this game but James Harden is expected to play. Leading the series 3-2, the Nets are a -250 favorite to advance to the next round. The Bucks are a + 195 underdog to win the series. 

8:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (35-31) at San Diego Padres (38-32)

These two teams are trending in completely opposite directions. The red-hot Reds just swept the Brewers and are now 11-2 over their last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Padres just got swept by the Rockies and are just 2-9 over their last 11 games. In tonight's non-division series opener, the Reds send out veteran lefty Wade Miley (6-4, 2.92 ERA) and the Padres counter with righty Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.50 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -160 home favorite and the Reds a + 145 road dog. The public says give the plus money with the streaking Reds. However, this line has actually moved further to San Diego (-160 to -170). This indicates wiseguys fading the popular play and buying low on the Padres to get back to their winning ways. San Diego falls in the non-division home favorite sweet spot (-150 to -175). These teams have gone 50-19 (72.5%) this season. San Diego is 11-5 against lefties this season. The Padres are + 61 in run differential this season. The Reds are dead even (0). This total opened at a low 7 and respected money seems to be hitting the over as it has risen to 7.5 at some shops. The Reds are one of the best over teams in baseball this season (38-25-3).

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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