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Thursday College Hoops Sharp Report for Duquesne-Richmond, UCF-East Carolina and Arizona State-Colorado

March 4, 2021 12:29 AM

Today, we have another juicy betting menu filled with 40-plus college basketball games, 9 NBA games and 10 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 12:30 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line with Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher at 1:45 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss a few college hoops matchups today receiving sharp action from respected bettors...

11 a.m. ET: Duquesne vs Richmond

Don't sleep in too late or you'll miss the tip off for this 2nd Round game in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Duquesne (8-8) is the 9th seed and finished the regular season on a high note, going 4-2 down the stretch. Duquesne beat Rhode Island in the regular season finale 86-75, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Richmond (13-7) is the 8th seed and has a better record, but stumbled at the end of the regular season, losing two straight and three of their last five. Richmond fell to St. Joseph's 76-73 in their last game, losing outright as 14.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Richmond listed as a 6-point favorite on a neutral court (VCU's home stadium). The public is all over Richmond as the "better" team, yet we've seen this line fall from 6 to 5.5. This sharp reverse line movement signals some pro money grabbing the points with Duquesne. Ken Pom has Richmond winning by seven points, which means he's slightly more bullish on Richmond than the betting market. This is a revenge game for Duquesne. The Dukes lost to Richmond 79-72 back on February 20th, although they covered as 9-point road dogs.  

9 p.m. ET: Central Florida at East Carolina

This late night American Athletic Conference showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. Central Florida (9-11) may have a losing record but the Knights have played well down the stretch, winning three straight and four of their last five. UCF has covered in four straight games, three of which were as a favorite. Meanwhile, East Carolina (8-8) is crumbling down the stretch. The Pirates started the season 7-1 but have gone just 1-7 since. This line opened with UCF listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Respected money has poured in on UFC, driving this line up from -2.5 to -3.5. Ken Pom has UCF winning by one point, but he also has UCF ranked much higher (95th vs 137th). One variable to keep in mind here: East Carolina will be playing their first game in nearly a month. They've had their last five games postponed due to COVID and haven't played since February 8th. We've seen many teams struggle in their first game back off a COVID layoff. 

9 p.m. ET: Arizona State at Colorado

Both of these PAC-12 opponents are feeling good about themselves and riding win streaks. Arizona State (10-11) may have a sub .500 record but the Sun Devils have won three straight, beating Washington State and Washington twice. Now they face Colorado (19-7, ranked 24th), who has also won three straight games, beating Oregon State, USC and UCLA. This line opened with Colorado listed as an 11-point home favorite. The public is pounding Colorado as a ranked home favorite, yet we've seen this line dip slightly down from -11 to -10.5. Some shops are even down to -10. This signals some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Sun Devils. Arizona State has value as a double-digit unranked conference road dog vs a ranked opponent. Arizona State also has value as a buy low "bad" ATS team (5-16) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (15-11). Ken Pom has Colorado winning by twelve points, which means the betting market is higher on Arizona State than the advanced analytics. 

More Thursday Moves

Dayton -3 to -4.5 vs Rhode Island

Rider + 5 to + 4.5 vs Monmouth

Murray State -1.5 to -2 vs Jacksonville State

Saint Peter's -2.5 to -4 at Quinnipiac

Northern Colorado + 10.5 to + 9.5 at Weber State

Austin Peay + 3 to + 2 vs Eastern Kentucky

Northern Iowa -6 to -6.5 vs Illinois State

Nebraska-Iowa Over 151.5 to 152.5

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