Thursday Bowl Games Sharp Report


Chalk has been paying off so far this Bowl Game season. Bowl Game favorites went a perfect 3-0 ATS on Wednesday to improve to 14-9 ATS (61%) overall. Overs went 2-1 on Wednesday to improve to 15-9 (63%). Following late game-day movement and fading teams with significant opt-outs has also proven to be a smart strategy thus far. 

Now it's onto Thursday, where bettors have four more Bowl Games to get down on plus 4 NBA games, 7 NHL games and a loaded College Basketball slate. For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also be hopping on Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's Bowl Games...


11:30 a.m. ET: South Carolina vs North Carolina

This early kickoff is the Duke's Mayo Bowl. It will be played at the home stadium of the Carolina Panthers. South Carolina (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) is coming off a 30-0 loss to Clemson, failing to cover as 11.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, North Carolina (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) also lost their last game, falling to NC State 34-30 but covering as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with North Carolina listed as low as a 5-point favorite at some shops. We've seen heavy steam lay the points with the TarHeels, driving the line up to North Carolina -10. This line move was due in large part to several key opt-outs for South Carolina, including missing their starting quarterback, leading rusher and top sack man. Conversely, star QB Sam Howell has elected to play in this game and will start for North Carolina. The TarHeels have an advantage offensively, averaging 37 PPG compared to just 21 PPG for South Carolina. We've also seen some under money show up, driving the total down from 59 to 57. 


3 p.m. ET: Purdue vs Tennessee

This is the Music City Bowl and it will be played at the home of the Tennessee Titans. Purdue (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won their final two games of the regular season and just waxed Indiana 44-7, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Tennessee (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won two straight and just beat Vanderbilt 45-21, although they failed to cover as 32-point home favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a short 3-point favorite. Respected money had laid the points with the Volunteers, driving Tennessee up from -3 to -6.5. There are two big opt outs for Purdue, their leading receiver David Bell and best defensive player George Karlaftis. Tennessee appears to be at full strength. The Vols are averaging 38 PPG on offense compared to 27 PPG for Purdue. 


7 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh at Michigan State

This is the Peach Bowl and it will be played at the home of the Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) is ranked 10th and just beat Wake Forest 45-21 in the ACC Championship game, easily covering as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Michigan State (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) is ranked 11th and just upset Penn State 30-27, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 4-point favorite. We've seen this line completely flip to Michigan State -3 on the news that Pitt star QB Kenny Pickett opted out and will not play. Michigan State will miss star RB Kenneth Walker as well, but the Pickett opt-out is more significant to the line. Pitt will also be missing their offensive play caller Mark Whipple, who left to become the offensive coordinator at Nebraska. The total has tanked from 63 to 56 without Pickett and Walker playing. 


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