After a weekend of exciting finishes and wild covers (and non-covers), let’s look ahead to Week 11. Before we get to the picks, just a quick reminder: Stay the course. Much like a defensive back who gets burned for a long touchdown pass, betting requires a little bit of amnesia. Mike Trout has gone hitless for long stretches, and Steph Curry has had off nights shooting the basketball. Whether you’re hot or cold, put the work in, review what went right and what went wrong, then move on. The worst bettor will have great stretches, and the best of the best will have losing weeks, months and, sometimes, even years. This isn’t your first slump, and it will not be your last. Bill Belichick often implores his team to embrace the idea that the upcoming game is the most important game because it’s the next one. Slumps feel like they will never end when you’re in the midst of one, but they are long forgotten once the tide turns.
Some of the worst beats of the year occurred Sunday. If you were on either side of the Texans-Browns or Cardinals-Bills games, you were on an emotional roller coaster and were likely to be feeling like the victim of a bad beat regardless of how those games ended. They reminded me of the “Minneapolis Miracle,” when the Vikings were laying 5.5, trailed by one with 10 seconds left and had the ball on their own 39-yard line. Case Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs, who realized nobody was behind him after the catch and ran in for the game-winning touchdown. The Vikings celebrated, and the Saints exited the field. Almost 10 minutes after the play, the Saints were called back onto the field as a PAT attempt was required to complete the game. The Vikings, leading 29-24, took a knee and failed to cover. Anyone who had the Vikings likely cried about suffering a bad beat. Had they kicked the PAT, Saints backers would have done the same. Some games are so crazy that whoever loses will have a bad-beat story to tell for years. Let’s avoid any beats, good or bad, and take a look at Week 11.